Research On Emergency Materials Demand Forecast Of Major And Major Earthquake Disasters

It is difficult to predict the occurrence of major and major earthquake disasters,which are characterized by strong suddenness,high uncertainty and serious consequences,which poses a challenge to the prediction of emergency supplies demand.The research of this paper is based on the classification of emergency materials for major and major earthquake disasters.Based on the Classification and Coding of Emergency Materials recently issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation in 2020,the paper aims to unify the standards.The demand for medical and epidemic prevention equipment urgently needed after major and major earthquakes,common emergency drugs,processed food and relief tents were selected to forecast.Through the indirect forecasting method,the prediction model of casualties in heavy and very large earthquakes is built first when the demand of emergency materials is predicted.The contents of emergency rescue work in different time periods are quite different,and each forecasting model also has different characteristics.According to the three time periods of the disaster sequence change process,the BP neural network model is selected as the prediction model for 1-3 days after the disaster,the multiple linear regression model is selected as the prediction model for 3-5 days after the disaster,and the grey prediction model is selected as the prediction model for 5 days after the earthquake.The number of casualties after the disaster is predicted by innovating the combination of the three models.In order to cope with the drawbacks of a single forecasting method in the whole process of emergency rescue and strengthen pertinence,the prediction of each stage can be more accurate.Then,based on the accurate number of casualties predicted,the relationship between the number of casualties and different emergency materials is used to predict the demand for emergency materials,so as to avoid large errors in the process of direct prediction of emergency materials under the background of the influence of various complex factors such as post-earthquake secondary disasters and the difficulty in collecting many useful data.Finally,this paper summarizes all the major and severe earthquake disasters that occurred in China from 2001 to 2022,sorts out the sample data,and selects the index system by combining the gray relational analysis to verify the accuracy of the prediction method combined with the three models and enhance the persuasiveness.The research in this paper can provide some reference for the prediction of emergency materials demand of heavy earthquake disaster.