Full Track Stochastic Model And Simulation Of Tropical Cyclones Over Northwest Pacific

A tropical cyclone(TC)is a disastrous weather system that originates over warm tropical oceans,accompanying devastating phenomenon known as heavy rain and the storm surge,which pose the greatest threat to life and property.Therefore,it is of great significance to carry out risk analysis for disaster prevention & mitigation in government departments and decision making in the insurance industry.However,historical tropical cyclone are usually insufficient in quantitative TC risk analysis,making assessment of the risk difficult.One way to overcome this limitation is to make use of entire historical TCs,from genesis to lysis,thereby enhancing by roughly two orders of magnitude the amount of data on which to construct a statistical model.That’s helpful to reveal statistical law for tropical cyclone activity and develop quantitative risk assessment.The goal of this study is to develop a stochastic simulation model to generate enough TC samples in conformity to the spatiotemporal distribution of historical TC events in Northwestern Pacific.This study uses the best track dataset provided by IBTr ACS(International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship)as the model input data,and randomly simulates the track and intensity changes of TC from genesis to lysis.Research contents and main conclusions are listed as follows:(1)based on the historical observation TC data,spatiotemporal characteristics were analyzed and a basin-wide TC model was developed in this paper in order to construct datasets consisting of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks.By comparing simulations to the historical record using several diagnostics,the simulations and observations are statistically indistinguishable,which can be applied to quantitative TC risk assessment.(2)statistical relationship between large-scale environmental factors and TC genesis activity in the Northwestern Pacific was analyzed and a genesis model was developed and optimized in this paper to randomly simulate TC genesis point.By comparing the spatial distribution of simulated sample and historical record,the simulations and observations are basically consistent,which show that the model is robust and reliable.The above research results show that the full-track resampling model and genesis regression model constructed in this paper can describe tropical cyclone activities.It can provide technical reference for TC risk assessment and management.The innovations of this study include the following two points:(1)Improve the existing non-parametric model and develop a basin-wide TC model(2)Optimize the genesis model.