| Geological disasters refer to disasters related to geological action,such as landslides,landslides,debris flows,caused by natural factors or human activities that endanger people’s lives and property safety.With the progress of society,the rapid development of global economy and the increasing concentration of population and various resources,geological disasters have caused more and more serious harm to society.In order to reduce the losses caused by geological disasters,a comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics of geological disasters has become the focus of research,teaching and engineering technicians in domestic and foreign universities,research institutes and production technology enterprises.At present,research,teaching and engineering personnel in China have carried out research on the methods,contents and models of geological hazard risk assessment in different areas.Taking Shanxi as an example,this paper selects meteorological data,geographic information data,land area,population,GDP and other social and economic data of Shanxi province from 1988 to 2020,combined with normalization method,analytic hierarchy process,expert scoring method,Kriging interpolation method and other methods,constructs the geological hazard risk assessment model of Shanxi Province,uses GIS software for cartographic expression,and visualizes the analysis results.In order to draw the geological hazard risk zoning map of Shanxi Province.This paper analyzes the risk of geological disasters in various regions of Shanxi Province,in order to provide some reference for the prevention and control of geological disasters in Shanxi Province.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper selects slope,slope aspect,annual maximum daily rainfall,average annual rainstorm days and annual rainstorm as risk assessment factors,and constructs Shanxi geological hazard risk assessment model of Shanxi province based on normalization method,analytic hierarchy process,expert scoring method and Kriging interpolation method,uses GIS to draw the geological hazard risk zoning map in Shanxi Province.The risk of geological disasters in the east and west of Shanxi is greater,while that in the middle part is relatively small.From the south to the north,the risk of geological disasters is greater in the south of Shanxi and less in the north.(2)In the vulnerability analysis of disaster-bearing bodies,population density,land per capita GDP and cultivated land area ratio are used as the evaluation indexes of Shanxi geological hazard vulnerability.Based on the normalization method,analytic hierarchy process,expert scoring method and Kriging interpolation method,the Shanxi geological hazard vulnerability evaluation model is constructed,and the geological hazard vulnerability zoning map of Shanxi Province is drawn by using GIS.The middle and southwest of Shanxi province are highly vulnerable areas,especially in Taiyuan and Yuncheng areas.Luliang area in the central and western part of Shanxi province is in a low vulnerable area,which is consistent with the actual situation.(3)In the evaluation of the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation,in order to simplify the model,it is considered that the higher the local fiscal revenue,the more the local government invests in infrastructure construction,and the stronger the investment capacity in disaster prevention and mitigation work.At the same time,it is considered that the ratio of local financial revenue to the existing hidden danger points of geological disasters can to a large extent reflect the degree to which the input capacity of disaster prevention and reduction in a certain area meets the needs of disaster prevention and mitigation capacity in this region.Therefore,the ratio of local financial revenue to the existing hidden danger points of geological disasters is normalized as a factor for the evaluation of disaster prevention and mitigation capacity.The investment capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation in Shuozhou is the highest,followed by Taiyuan and Jincheng,and the lowest in Linfen.Luliang,Xinzhou and Yuncheng are also lower.(4)On the basis of the above research,this paper constructs the geological hazard risk assessment model of Shanxi Province based on the three factors of risk,vulnerability and the ability of disaster prevention and reduction.It is concluded that the risk of geological disasters is high in the west of Changzhi,the northeast of Linfen,the middle of Jincheng and the east of Yuncheng.Most areas of Luliang,Yangquan,the west of Changzhi and Jincheng belong to the second high risk areas of geological disasters.Most areas of Datong and Shuozhou belong to low risk areas of geological disasters.On the whole,the risk of geological disasters in the south of Shanxi is higher than that in the north. |
