Demand Forecasting Method And Workflow Optimization Base On L Company’s Server Projects

With the continuous development of high-tech industries such as Big Data,Cloud Computing,and Artificial Intelligence,the sales volume of China GEO server manufacturing industry has been rapidly growing year by year,it is expected that by 2025,the annual sales volume will reach 5.3 million units.At the same time,the market development and competitive situation have become more complex.In the face of a rapidly developing and complex market environment,market demand forecasting plays an increasingly important role in supply chain management,assist enterprises in smooth operation and sustainable development.This thesis is based on the server manufacturing industry and takes L Company’s market demand prediction as the blueprint.By optimizing the market demand prediction methods and processes,it helps L Company effectively improve the current problem of inaccurate market demand prediction,and explores a broader method and process optimization strategy suitable for the industry.The main research points of this article are as follows:Firstly,the main analysis focus on Star Projects and Problem Projects base on Growth Share Matrix tool.In terms of optimization of prediction methods,multiple quantitative analysis methods were compared for Star Projects,and it was ultimately concluded that using the SARIMA(Seasonal Differential Autoregressive Moving Average Model)can achieve good prediction accuracy.For Problem Projects,the main approach is to lower the prediction level from the product family level to the commodity level,and to predict and control unique materials and shared high-volume materials through safety stock settings.Secondly,in terms of prediction workflow optimization,the research mainly adopts the S&OP sales and operation management methodology,proposing suggestions for optimizing end-to-end processes,communication,division of labor,approval and other mechanisms.The results indicate that effective methods and process optimization can effectively improve the accuracy of L Company’s market demand prediction,achieve end-to-end closed-loop management,and achieve systematic and standardized enterprise management.