Study On Economic Loss Assessment Of Winter Wheat Drought Risk

Food security is the strategic foundation for ensuring China’s national security,and ensuring food security is crucial to our country.At present,China is facing a complex international situation.Under the influence of the COVID-19,several major grain producing countries announced to restrict grain exports and increase their own grain reserves;Locust disasters have occurred in many parts of the world,leading to a significant reduction in production in major food exporting countries and affecting food exports.In this global context,China’s food demand is more dependent on domestic production to meet.Due to the impact of global climate change,natural disasters such as droughts occur frequently in China,resulting in annual grain losses of up to 10 billion kilograms.Therefore,studying the issue of food security in the context of drought is crucial.As an important food crop,exploring the economic losses caused by drought has certain practical significance.This article first reviews and analyzes the theoretical content related to this study.Then,based on the geographical distribution of winter wheat cultivation in China and indicators such as winter wheat yield,ten major winter wheat producing provinces,including Shandong and Hebei provinces,are selected as the research area.Data from1990 to 2020 are selected as the research samples.The winter wheat yield in the research area accounts for over 90% of the total winter wheat yield in China,The sample selection has certain representativeness and typicality.Secondly,use meteorological knowledge to analyze the drought characteristics of the research area from 1990 to 2020,and grasp the drought situation of the entire research area.Then,using economic principles to explain and evaluate the economic loss value of winter wheat drought risk,using exponential smoothing model,grey prediction model,and machine learning model to predict the economic loss value of winter wheat drought risk per unit area in 2021,and comparing it with the actual value,the optimal fitting model is obtained to predict the data in the research area from 2024 to 2028;Finally,the impact of drought disaster intensity on the economic loss of drought risk of winter wheat per unit area is verified through Metrology model,and the full text is summarized to draw relevant suggestions on preventing and controlling the economic loss of drought risk of winter wheat.The research results indicate that: firstly,from an overall perspective,the frequency of drought occurrence in the study area is relatively high,and in certain specific years,the drought has a large impact on the food security of the main winter wheat producing provinces and regions.Secondly,drought disasters can cause a decrease in winter wheat production.Considering China’s current wheat price policy,agricultural product supply curve,and agricultural product market characteristics,the increase in winter wheat prices is much smaller than the reduction in grain production.This means that the inevitable loss caused by the reduction in winter wheat production due to drought is a direct economic loss caused by the risk of winter wheat drought.Thirdly,calculate the economic loss values of winter wheat drought risk and per unit area of winter wheat drought risk in 10 provinces from 1990 to 2020.By comparing the predicted values with the actual values,the grey prediction model has the best prediction effect.Based on this model,predict the economic loss values of winter wheat drought risk per unit area from 2024 to 2028.Fourthly,the "panel corrected standard error model" was used to verify the positive impact of drought intensity on the economic loss of drought risk per unit area of winter wheat,and ideal empirical results were obtained.The results of benchmark regression,robustness test,and heterogeneity test all showed that drought intensity significantly promoted the economic loss of drought risk per unit area of winter wheat.The idea of drought resistance and disaster reduction can to some extent reduce the economic losses caused by winter wheat drought risk,thereby reducing the impact of drought on China’s food security and economic development.