Research On The Influence Of Population Change On Temperature In Chongqing Based On Functional Regression Model

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,the impact of human activities on the rise in global temperature has become more and more serious,and it is urgent to deal with the relationship between population and global temperature rise.This paper takes the impact of population change on temperature in Chongqing as the research object,uses functional regression analysis to analyze the population change and temperature change in Chongqing from 2001 to 2021,and deeply discusses the direction and degree of influence of population change on temperature.Firstly,by summarizing and combing the relevant literature research at home and abroad,comparing different research perspectives and research methods,this paper analyzes the advantages and shortcomings of the current research in the field of population change and temperature,and elaborates the relevant research theories and methods.Then,the influence and transmission mechanism of population change on temperature were discussed from three aspects: the change of total population size,the change of urban and rural distribution of population,and the change of population age structure.Then,the basic situation of population change and daily temperature change in Chongqing from 2001 to 2021 is analyzed,and then with the help of IPAT and other related theoretical foundations,starting from the population change factors of total population size,urban and rural distribution of population and population age structure,the control variables such as economic development level and industrial structure are introduced,and a functional regression analysis model of population change on temperature in Chongqing from 2001 to 2021 is established.The influence of different population factors on temperature in Chongqing was explored,and the robustness of the above results was tested by expanding the study area,changing the data form,and using the GTWR model.Finally,the following conclusions are obtained:(1)the total population size of Chongqing continues to rise,but its month-on-month growth rate first rises,then declines,and finally stabilizes;The urbanization rate of the population has steadily increased,and the degree of population agglomeration has deepened;The process of population aging is higher than that of the whole country and the process is accelerating,and the demographic dividend is about to be less.(2)Chongqing has a large temperature difference throughout the year,but the extreme climate has not yet formed,and from the data inside,it is found that the factors affecting the daily maximum temperature change in these years are complex,and the degree of influence of each factor is different.(3)The total population size and the urban-rural distribution of the population are positively correlated with the temperature,that is,the increase of the total population size and the increase of population urbanization will make the temperature rise;The age structure of the population is negatively correlated with the temperature,that is,the aggravation of the aging of the population can alleviate the temperature rise,and the impact of the three on the temperature fluctuates in different amplitudes throughout the year,and there are seasonal effects,and the degree of influence on the temperature is the total population size,urban and rural distribution of the population,and the age structure of the population from large to small.Through GTWR model test,it is found that the symbols of each variable are consistent with expectations,and the model estimation is reliable,and the above research is analyzed in detail,and relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the aspects of controlling population quantity and improving population quality in combination with the actual situation.