Research On The Origin And Distribution Of Offshore Wind And Wave Energy Resources Influencing Adverse Weather Constraints

The wave energy of offshore wind power is green and low-carbon energy.In response to China’s "double carbon" action,the construction of offshore wind turbines has become one of the main forces of China’s "double carbon" economic construction.The distribution of offshore wind wave energy resources provides reference for the construction and utilization of offshore wind turbines.The prediction of severe weather events is of great significance for the protection and maintenance of offshore wind turbines.At present,studies on the abundance of offshore wind wave energy resources are the most common,but few studies consider the distribution of offshore wind wave energy resources in adverse weather.This article mainly studies the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of adverse weather event frequency,the changes of adverse weather event frequency affected by environmental factors and the prediction of adverse weather event frequency.Under the weed out adverse weather time,respectively to the Bohai China Sea,Yellow China Sea,East China sea and South China sea wind energy density,the density of wave energy,wind energy variation coefficient and the wave energy coefficient of variation of time and space distribution characteristics were analyzed.The research content of this paper is divided into the following four parts.The first part is based on ERA5 wind field data and global ocean wave reanalysis data to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of severe weather events in Chinese waters from 2006 to 2020.The results show that the frequency of severe weather events increases by 1.24 percent every 15 years,accounting for more than60% in the Taiwan Strait and northern South China Sea,and the deep sea is higher than the offshore sea.The frequency of severe weather events has significant seasonal characteristics,and the proportion of severe weather events from October to the following February is positive anomaly,and the proportion of severe weather events in autumn and winter is much higher than that in spring and summer,with a wider range of more than 60 percent.The second part analyzes the influence of El Ni(?)o and La Ni(?)a on the change of severe weather events according to Nino 3.4 index.The results show that the maximum positive anomalies of severe weather events occur from the winter of El Ni(?)o year to the spring of La Ni(?)a year.Compared with normal years,severe weather events increase significantly in El Ni(?)o and La Ni(?)a years,especially in the Taiwan Strait and the northern Part of the South China Sea,which has a great influence on the frequency distribution of severe weather events,and the high frequency areas are more widely distributed in La Ni(?)a years than El Ni(?)o years.The third part uses the temperature data of coastal meteorological stations to study the influence of cold wave process on the frequency of severe weather events and the influence of typhoon process on the frequency of severe weather events according to the optimal path data of typhoons over the years in China.The results show that the proportion of severe weather in the Bohai Sea and yellow Sea is higher than that in the East China Sea and south China Sea during cold wave weather,and the proportion of severe weather in the East China Sea and south China Sea is higher than that in the East China Sea during typhoon.The contribution of Taiwan Strait to severe weather frequency in the East China Sea cannot be ignored,and the proportion of severe weather frequency in the East China Sea is the largest.The fourth part forecasts the frequency of severe weather events on the sea based on LSTM neural network.The results show that the LSTM neural network model can well predict the frequency of severe weather events.It is more accurate to predict the frequency of adverse weather events when the proportion of the frequency of severe weather events is below 70% than above 70%.The prediction accuracy of adverse weather events from 12 th and 9th in 2020 to 12 th and 31 st in 2020 is as high as 90.54%,and the frequency of adverse weather events shows an increasing trend.In the fifth part,the wind energy density,wave energy density,wind energy variation coefficient and wave energy variation coefficient in Bohai China Sea,Yellow China Sea,East China sea and South China sea are analyzed respectively.The results show that the abundance and stability of wind wave energy resources have significant seasonal characteristics and regional differences with and without the exclusion of adverse weather.When the severe weather conditions were excluded,the abundance of wind energy resources in the middle and north of Bohai Sea decreased,but it was still available and more stable,while the abundance of wave energy resources decreased and the resources were scarce.The wind energy resources in the Yellow Sea are less abundant,available and more stable,which is similar to the Bohai China Sea.The wave energy resources in the middle and south of the Yellow China Sea are available and stable,which is different from the Bohai China Sea.Wind energy is still abundant and stable in the middle and south of the East China Sea and the north of the South China Sea.The wave energy resources are available and stable,and the characteristics are most significant in the Taiwan Strait.Meanwhile,the difference of wind energy and wave energy resources in the two cases does not increase year by year,which has broad prospects for development and utilization.In addition,the wind wave energy resources have obvious seasonal characteristics.The abundance of wind wave energy resources in Bohai China sea,Yellow China Sea,East China Sea and Bohai Sea in winter is greatly affected by adverse weather,while the stability of wind wave energy resources in yellow Sea and South China Sea in autumn and east China Sea in summer is greatly affected,and the overall impact degree of the East China Sea is less than that of other sea areas.