Valuation Of Photovoltaic Enterprises Based On Fuzzy Real Option Model

Solar energy is the most stored and least polluting renewable energy on the earth,and many developed countries have incorporated it into one of the main energy sources for future development based on the advantages of solar energy,and hope to maximize the development and utilization of solar energy through technology research and development.Therefore,companies that convert solar energy into electricity through photovoltaic products have become another explosive growth industry after the Internet and e-commerce industries.In 2018,photovoltaic companies entered a new round of adjustment period,eliminating a number of enterprises with backward production capacity in the industry,and enterprises with scale advantages and technical advantages were further expanded.Since 2020,photovoltaic policies have been introduced,proposing to integrate and build a photovoltaic enterprise structure from all aspects.Photovoltaic enterprises need to carry out technological innovation to promote photovoltaic parity,and the government should ensure the implementation of subsidy policies and jointly promote the development of photovoltaic enterprises.In the same year,about 434 photovoltaic projects were included in the bidding subsidy,and the total bidding scale of more than 400 photovoltaic projects reached 25.97 GW,an increase of 14% year-on-year,far exceeding market expectations;this indicates a largescale growth in domestic demand.China’s photovoltaic industry has undergone several phased ups and downs,and how to correctly assess the value of photovoltaic companies in the current industry environment is a problem that needs to be solved urgently in the industry.This paper first analyzes the characteristics of the photovoltaic industry,and then elaborates the characteristics and applicable conditions of the traditional enterprise value assessment method,and finds that the traditional valuation method does not correctly evaluate the value of photovoltaic enterprises,so the real option method is proposed.The real option method can reasonably assess the opportunity value of the enterprise in the future,and the opportunity value of the enterprise is mainly reflected in the projects that have not yet been built and the new technologies that have not yet been put into use,as well as the flexible management within the enterprise.Therefore,the addition of real option method to the value assessment model of photovoltaic enterprises can comprehensively assess the value of photovoltaic enterprises.The main contents and conclusions of the paper are as follows:First of all,it analyzes whether the photovoltaic company has the characteristics of real options and whether it can use the real option model to assess the value of the enterprise.By analyzing the source of the value of photovoltaic enterprises,based on the uncertainties existing in the operation and management of photovoltaic enterprises,it is pointed out that there are indeed option characteristics in China’s photovoltaic enterprises,and the option value is contained in the operation and management of the enterprise,and the potential value of the enterprise can be assessed by using the real option model.Secondly,based on the B-S model,the fuzzy mathematical theory is combined with the real option theory,and the trapezoidal fuzzy function is used to express the uncertainty of the present value and execution price of the underlying asset,so as to correct the original B-S model.By analyzing the characteristics of the real option model,it is determined that it is an auxiliary valuation method to assess the potential value of the enterprise,and the existing value of the enterprise still needs to be evaluated through the EVA model.Therefore,a combined valuation method of fuzzy real options and EVA models is established,and the existing value and potential value of the enterprise are evaluated and summed,and the overall value of the photovoltaic company is finally obtained.Finally,for the case company LONGi shares,the EVA-based fuzzy real option method and the EVAbased B-S model were used to evaluate their corporate value,and the assessed value was compared and analyzed.The results show that compared with the B-S model based on EVA,the combined model of EVA and fuzzy real options method is more suitable for the assessment of the overall value of photovoltaic companies,and the evaluation value of the combination model is closer to the market price of LONGi shares,which can more effectively reflect the overall value of the enterprise.The proposal of the portfolio model can provide a value reference for investment and mergers and acquisitions in the capital market of photovoltaic companies,provide accurate valuation schemes for enterprise management,and formulate more reasonable corporate strategies.