Colonization Risk Assessment Of Important Alien Invasive Species In The Lancang-Mekong Subregion Based On Climate Environment

Alien biological invasion is one of the important characteristics of global change.The economic losses and ecological security caused by biological invasion have a great impact,and have been widely concerned by governments,scholars and the public all over the world.The Lancang Mekong Subregion is the intersection of "Silk Road Economic Belt" and "21st century Maritime Silk Road".It is also a key area of biodiversity with global significance.In recent years,affected by special environment and regional conditions,the Lancang Mekong subregion has gradually become one of the most severely affected areas by biological invasion in the world.Predicting the diffusion trend of potential alien organisms in the region,determining potential invasive habitats,and strictly preventing the escalation of biological invasion risks have important scientific significance and urgent practical needs for maintaining the ecological security of the region and ensuring the smooth progress of the "the Belt and Road" initiative and the green "the Belt and Road" construction.This study takes the 100 most invasive pests in the world published by IUCN as the research object,and uses the niche model to evaluate the colonization risk in the Lancang Mekong Subregion based on the climate and environmental conditions.On this basis,combined with the actual distribution of the above alien invasive species in the world,the study analyzes the potential invasion risk sources in the Lancang Mekong subregion,and obtains the following results:(1)Areas with high species richness and high colonization risk of important invasive species are mainly distributed in northern Laos and Myanmar,coastal areas in southern Thailand,coastal areas in northern and Eastern Vietnam,and southern Yunnan of China.When the altitude is greater than 2000 meters,the species richness of important invasive species decreases with the increase of altitude,that is,the colonization risk decreases.(2)Due to the impact of future climate change,the colonization risk of dangerous alien invasive species in the Lancang Mekong Subregion will generally decrease,but the risk of invasion and colonization will increase significantly in Yunnan of China,where the latitude and altitude are higher.The high colonization risk area of important invasive species tends to be distributed in the area with an altitude of 2000 meters under climate change.The area of level I colonization risk in the area shows an increasing trend,and the area of other levels of colonization risk decreases.(3)At present,the main sources of invasion risk in Laos,Myanmar,Thailand and Yunnan of China in the Lancang Mekong subregion are North America and Asia,while the sources of invasion risk in Cambodia and Vietnam are concentrated in Asia.Under the conditions of climate change,the potential risk sources of dangerous alien invasive species in the Lancang Mekong Subregion will remain basically stable.(4)During biological invasion management,different countries and regions and potential colonization areas of different groups should be considered respectively,and different management schemes should be set according to local conditions to prevent and control invasive species from different sources and groups.What the Lancang Mekong Subregion needs to focus on is the invasion threat from North America and Asia;What Cambodia needs to focus on is the invasion threat from Asia;What Laos needs to focus on is the invasion threat from North America and Asia;What Myanmar needs to focus on is the threat of invasion from North America and Asia;What Thailand needs to focus on is the invasion threat from North America and Asia;What Vietnam needs to focus on is the invasion threat from Asia;What Yunnan of China region needs to focus on is the threat of invasion from North America and Asia.The analysis results of colonization risk and its temporal and spatial changes based on the species distribution model provide a data basis for clarifying the pattern of biological invasion risk in the Lancang Mekong Subregion and a basis for the prevention and control of biological invasion in the region.