| Bulk commodities are very important essential factors of production in the fields of national economics.It is easily under the influence of macroeconomic policy and economic fluctuation.When talking about different commodities,it is very crucial to analyse the influence of exchange rate factors on the prices.Based on the sorting out of the research of domestic and foreign scholars about price fluctuation of bulk commodities and macro influencing factors,starting from analysing the difference of influence,comparing with the similarities and differences of the impacts of US dollar index on the prices of different varieties of commodities in contemporaneity,and providing certain basis on analysis and prediction of price trends of commodities.The empirical research about Copper(as Industrial Metal),Cotton(as Agricultural product),Crude oil(as Energy)&US dollar index,GDP,M2 and rate of interest etc.related data from January 2013 to June 2019,using VAR model,Cointegration Test,VEC model,AR Root Test,Impulse Response Function,Variance Decoposition method,turns out that first of all,Crude oil&Copper prices and US dollar index are negative correlation,but Cotton prices and US dollar index are positive correlation.Secondly,the price of commodities is mostly impacted by GDP.The influence of US dollar index,M2 and rate of interest on the price of bulk commodities are similar levels.However,Crude oil is an exception.Thirdly,the influence of US dollar index on domestic&oversea spots prices of same kind of commodity are quite close.There is same conclusion on the commodity future prices.Fourthly,and last,oil prices are greatly impacted by US dollar index,second is copper,the third one is cotton.At the end,the paper put forward the feasible policy suggestion to improve and develop commodity market,promote macroeconomic development and provide assistance. |
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