Study On Dynamic Simulation And Optimization Of Inventory System Of Dual-channel Supply Chain Considering Risk Aversion

In recent years,the development and operation models of e-commerce and retail industry in china have continued to evolve,and the combination model of online shopping platforms and offline physical stores has stood out.Due to the increasingly fierce market competition and the uncertainty of customer demand,in order to improve the inventory turnover rate and capital flow rate,enterprises and merchants have adopted a combination model of offline physical retail and online shopping platforms to implement a dual-channel integration strategy.Therefore,the complementarity of online transactions and offline retail is the general trend.At the same time,the increasingly fierce and uncertain market environment may trigger different risk aversion behaviors of supply chain members.This article takes the dual-channel supply chain consisting of suppliers,distributors,online retailers,and offline physical retailers as the main research object,and starts from the deterministic and stochastic demands to explore the risk-aversion behavior on the dual-channel supply chain Impact of inventory strategy.Based on the prospect theory,this paper uses the system dynamics method to build a risk perception function for supply chain decision makers and a dual channel supply chain system dynamic model of inventory system.Simulations are performed by Vensim PLE software and In-depth research and analysis of inventory strategies under the different risk aversion behavior of supply chain decision makers are carried out.The main research contents are as follows:(1)This article develops a single-channel supply chain system dynamic inventory model without considering risk aversion behavior under deterministic demand conditions firstly,and then builds a single-channel supply chain system dynamic inventory model that considers risk aversion behavior based on prospect theory.By comparing the inventory decision changes of the aforementioned two model systems under the same market demand conditions,the degree of influence of risk preference behavior on supply chain inventory decisions is analyzed.The research results show that there is a big difference between the inventory strategy of the supply chain under the risk preference situation and the strategy under thecompletely rational situation: without considering the risk preference,the dealer's inventory,order quantity and stock-out quantity all have cycles and the fluctuations are relatively stable.but when considering the risk aversion of supply chain decision makers,as the degree of risk aversion increases,the inventory,ordering quantity and stock-out quantity of dealers change more and more.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the impact of the risk aversion of supply chain members on their inventory and replenishment decisions.(2)Different from the assumption that traditional supply chain members are risk-neutral in the existing literature,this article introduces risk aversion behavior and combines the risk perception function of the prospect theory in the decision of dual-channel supply chain members.We study the changes of dual-channel supply chain inventory strategies in three scenarios: dealer with risk aversion,retailer with risk aversion,and dealer and retailers with risk aversion.The analysis results show that in these three cases,the inventory and ordering quantity of the dealer,a physical retailer and an online retailer will increase with the increase of decision makers' risk aversion;the fluctuation range of the inventory,order quantity,and stock-out quantity in the dual-channel supply chain is smaller where only retailers have a risk aversion than that in the case where only the dealer has a risk aversion and the dealer and retailers all have the same risk preference.This shows that the more upstream the members of the supply chain are,the greater the impact of their risk aversion on the supply chain inventory decisions and the more likely it is to affect the stability of the supply chain inventory system.(3)The difference between the research content of this paper and the existing literature is mainly that it extends the current research results of risk aversion behavior in supply chain.Existing literature basically only studies the coordination strategy of dual-channel supply chain unilaterally,or studies the risk aversion behavior of single channel alone,or studies the dual-channel supply chain through mathematical models and does not combine dual-channel,risk aversion behaviors and system dynamics at the same time to research the dynamics performance on the supply chain inventory strategy,and considering these three factors can make the inventory model more realistic.Considering the complex non-linear relationships among factors such as transportation delays,stock-outs,dealer distribution patterns among different channels and risk aversion behaviors,this paper uses a system dynamics method to perform simulations.This method can clearly and reasonably describe these complex non-linear relationships between variables.