Research On The Optimal Development Path Of Solar Thermal Power Generatio

Coping with global climate change and reducing dependence on non-renewable energy sources is of great significance today.Researchers around the world are striving to develop renewable energy to realize sustainable development.As an important form of clean energy generation that provides continuous and stable power generation and is grid-friendly,concentrated solar power has been developing rapidly in recent years.Concentrated solar power is the process of converting solar energy into thermal energy,which is then converted into electricity by doing work.Basically,concentrated solar power shares the same power generation principle with fossil-fuel power stations.It is expected that concentrated solar power,together with wind and solar photovoltaic,will constitute a stable,high percentage of renewable energy generation system that will be price-competitive with conventional energy sources.In this study,according to the data in authoritative reports issued by the National Energy Administration and the International Renewable Energy Agency,a dynamic programming approach based on minimum cost was used to explore the optimal development path of concentrated solar power generation in China by 2050.A learning curve model and a technology diffusion model were used as constraints.The least square method is used to estimate the parameters of the learning curve model,and then the future cost is predicted.The parameters in the diffusion model of technological innovation are estimated by genetic algorithm,and the potential market size and annual diffusion theoretical value of concentrated solar power are obtained.In order to minimize the cost as the goal to establish a dynamic programming model,combined with relevant influencing factors,set constraints to meet the development goals,through Lingo software programming to obtain the optimal installed capacity of each year.The impact of factors such as Gross Domestic Product(GDP)growth,incentive policies,technological advances,grid absorptive capacity,and emission regulation schemes on the development of concentrated solar power generation was discussed in the context of sensitivity analysis and scenario comparison by adjusting the values of parameter.This study has reached the following conclusions: 1)under the current development situation,the government cannot achieve the target for cumulative installed capacity in 2050 due to the impact of the epidemic.Considering the interaction of relevant factors,the target would be hard to achieve even under favorable conditions;2)as a key factor affecting the development of concentrated solar power,the incentive policy is closely related to construction cost.It is noteworthy that although the target can be achieved with a higher investment ratio,the concentrated solar power industry has failed to create a good ecological environment in the early stage of development;3)GDP growth and learning rate are important factors influencing the development path in later stages;and 4)although they operate as potential factors affecting construction costs,grid absorptive capacity and carbon permit prices have limited impact on the development of concentrated solar power generation.Finally,some suggestions are given for the development of concentrated solar power generation in China.