| Research on the decay law of pavement performance is very important for highway management departments to formulate scientific management plans.This article considers 9 factors that affect the performance decay of ordinary highway asphalt pavement in Zunyi City: Road age,annual average daily traffic volume(AADT),base compressive modulus,surface compressive modulus,base thickness,surface thickness,annual average temperature,annual average precipitation and relative humidity.Based on the MEA optimized BP neural network model and the MA optimized GM(1,10)model,a new combined model of ordinary highway asphalt pavement performance decay was established.Moreover,based on the decay law of pavement performance and benefit-cost analysis,the decision of preventive maintenance timing is studied.Finally,an example is used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of this article,and determine the preventive maintenance period and the best preventive maintenance time of G352 highway in Zunyi City.Research shows that:(1)MEA optimized BP neural network model and MA optimized GM(1,10)model are better than ordinary models;(2)Among the three combined models,the weighted arithmetic proportional average combined model is the best,and has better predictions than the single model Accuracy;(3)It is determined that the preventive maintenance period of G352 highway in Zunyi City is 4-6 years,and the best preventive maintenance time is 5.5 years.The research can provide references for highway management departments to formulate scientific and effective highway management and maintenance plans.Thereby improving the efficiency of highway management. |
