Study On The Relationship Between Upper Respiratory Tract Infection And Meteorological Factors And Disease Prediction Model In Shenzhen

With the increasing global climate change and its increasingly prominent impact on human health,medical meteorology is gaining more and more attention as a new interdisciplinary subject.In order to implement the "Healthy China 2030 Planning Outline" and complete the specific tasks of "building a healthy city as the goal",this article upholds the concept of "integration of man and nature" and "prevention first",with Shenzhen,a representative city in southern China,as a study District,using the daily number of day-to-day consultations on upper respiratory tract infections in 49 community health service centers in Luohu District from 2014 to 2018(a total of 1.39 million cases)and routine meteorological elements from 1988 to 2018.this article plans to analyze the impact of weather and climate to respiratory tract infection risk and lag response relationship,and then develops its risk prediction model,in order to provide new scientific and technological support for the prevention and control of local respiratory diseases.The main findings are as follows:(1)The average number of upper respiratory tract infections in Shenzhen from2014 to 2018 was 764.3 persons per day.Male patients were slightly higher than female patients;age group found that the proportion of patients 'age group was consistent with the local population age distribution,and the minor group(0-18 years old): adult group(19-60 years old): elderly group(over 60 years old)? 3: 6: 1;patients aged 0-11 accounted for 26.52% of the total number of patients,patients aged 36-47 accounted for 21.465% of the total number of patients;Seasonal groupings found that the number of upper respiratory tract infections in Shenzhen is relatively low in early spring,early summer and autumn,while there are more upper respiratory tract infections in most of winter and spring and midsummer.Cold air activities in winter and spring and persistent high temperatures in summer are important causes of upper respiratory tract infection;24 solar terms distribution study found that the first peak of upper respiratory tract infection occurs during the winter solstice(slight cold: 1103.6 people/d,winter solstice:981 people/d),and the second peak(993.3 people / d)occurs during the slight heat,and the third peak(953.9 people / d)occurs during the clear and bright,and the lowest value(501 people/d)occurs during the stopping the heat,and autumn is generally the incidence of upper respiratory tract infections in the area.It is the most comfortable zone from the stopping the heat to the autumnal equinox.(2)In the past 30 years,the temperature in Shenzhen has fluctuated and increased,and the daily average air pressure,relative humidity and daily average wind speed have shown a significant downward trend.The analysis results of the incidence in different seasons show that the heating rate is higher in spring and autumn,and the precipitation in the same period also increases significantly;the precipitation in summer decreases and the humidity decreases;the winter shows a clear trend of warming and drying,and the humidity shows a significant decrease.Correlation analysis shows that the number of upper respiratory tract infections has a significant positive correlation with air pressure,temperature change,and daily difference,and has a significant negative correlation with air temperature,pressure change,relative humidity,daily precipitation,and water vapor pressure;in spring and autumn,the upper The number of respiratory tract infections is positively correlated with air pressure and negatively correlated with temperature;in summer,the number of incidences is positively correlated with daily average temperature change and daily temperature difference;the relationship between variable pressure and number of incidences is negative in each season;DLNM model shows that the influence of temperature on the incidence of upper respiratory tract infection is mainly lag effect,which reaches the highest RR = 1.041(95% CI: 1.022 ?1.060)in the 4th lag;the cold wind activity caused by cold air activities in winter and spring is easy to induce upper respiratory disease.At the same time,women have a more significant response to cold air activities than men.Similarly,elder people have a more significant response to cold air activities than young and middle-aged people.The effect of humidity is mainly due to the low humidity effect,and it peaks at 0d after lag RR = 1.058(95%: 1.049 ? 1.068);because the decrease in humidity is a favorable condition for bacterial virus propagation,which increases the incidence of upper respiratory tract infections Risk;the influence of air pressure on the incidence of upper respiratory tract infection is mainly caused by high pressure effect,and it peaks at 1d after lag;the influence of wind speed change on the incidence of upper respiratory tract infection is mainly influenced by gale effect.(3)In the ARIMA time series model: the seasonal product prediction model of ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,0)[12] is obtained through model fitting,and the prediction accuracy rate of the back generation reaches 82.98%.The trend of the value and the actual value tends to be consistent.In the multiple stepwise regression prediction model:Regression analysis is performed on the daily sequence of different months,and it is found that different meteorological factors have different effects on the incidence of upper respiratory tract infections in different seasons.Among them,the parameters such as temperature change,pressure change,and humidity change affect the upper respiratory tract infection.The lag response is significant;the regression accuracy rate of the multiple stepwise regression forecast equation is 86.97%,and the trial forecast accuracy rate is 63.02%.Among them,the forecast accuracy rate is higher in the spring,summer,autumn,and related seasons,and slightly worse in winter.In conclusion,the above studies have explored the impact of different weather and climate changes in Shenzhen and the corresponding meteorological factors on the incidence of upper respiratory tract infections in related populations and the lagging response relationship.We have developed and optimized a prediction model for its incidence risk,which can be reasonably formulated for the local medical management department.Prevention and control strategies and measures,and scientific guidance to local residents in a timely manner to avoid the risk of upper respiratory tract infection to provide new scientific and technological support.