The Relationship Between Respiratory System Diseases And Meteorological Elements In Jinping County, Qiandongnan, Guizhou, And Its Prediction Methods

Faced with the abnormal changes in climate,the significant demand for the realization of the "Healthy China 2030" strategic goal and the reality of dealing with an aging society,meteorological medicine emerged as an promising interdisciplinary subject in preventive medicine.It concerns weather and climate that induce or aggravate diseases with abnormal changes,which is called meteosensitive disease.In this paper,the data of new rural cooperative medical insurance system in Jinping County from 2016 to 2017 and the data of meteorological observation from 1979 to 2017 are mainly used to study the characteristics of respiratory diseases,the characteristics of climate change,the response of meteorological factors to respiratory diseases and the prediction of meteosensitive diseases in Jinping County.The conclusions obtained are as follows:1.By analyzing the data of the new rural cooperative medical insurance in Jinping County from 2016 to 2017,it can be seen that respiratory diseases are the most common type in Jinping County,and the number of patients aged 65 or older is the largest group in the whole age group crowd.The winter and spring seasons are high-risk periods for respiratory diseases in Jinping County,and low-risk periods in summer.The time series shows a clear trend of “two heads high and middle low”.Analysis of the relationship with 24 solar terms can be seen: the number of cases and temperature showed a significant negative correlation.The first peak of the incidence of respiratory diseases occurs in the cold dew to the winter season,this period of cooling is obvious,can strengthen the reminder of disease prevention during this period.The sub-peak of the number of cases occurred during the period from Jingzhe to Qingming.The low-value areas of the number of cases occurred during the Beginning of summer and the Limit of Heat,indicating that the climatic conditions at this time have a certain effect on the health of patients with respiratory diseases.In addition,there are two small peaks in the Spring Equinox and the Autumnal Equinox,because the two seasons have the same day and night time,and the temperature difference is relatively large in a year,which leads to the sudden increase in the number of cases.2.Through the analysis of the climate characteristics of Jinping County for 48 years,we can see that the humidity overall shows an increasing trend.With the temperature rising,the trend of high temperature and humidity is more obvious.Various meteorological factors and respiratory diseases show different extents of correlation: the effects of air pressure and relative humidity on respiratory diseases show different extents of negative correlation,while temperature,wind speed and diurnal range show different degrees of negative correlation.Temperature and the number of patients with respiratory diseases showed obvious cold lag and warm instant effect,while relative humidity showed instant effect of high humidity.The average temperature and minimum temperature of 24 h have obvious cold effect.There are obvious cold and heat effects in the 24 h maximum temperature variation.There are obvious cold lag and thermal instantaneous effects in the mean temperature difference and maximum temperature difference of 48 h.The lowest temperature difference at 48 h has obvious cold effect.3.By comparing multiple stepwise regression and ARIMA time series,we can see that the accuracy of ARIMA time series is relatively high,and the accuracy of the whole year is higher than that of the four seasons.In the multivariate stepwise regression model,the accuracy of the whole year is higher than that of spring,autumn and winter,and the correlation in summer is the weakest,so no equation has been established.Considering the application of business,the method of multiple stepwise regression is more practical.According to the previous research conclusions,the database of meteorological data,medical data and the forecast system of meteorological sensitive diseases are established to improve the automation of the forecast of the number of meteorological sensitive diseases in Jinping County and the practicability of the research results,which can provide better services for meteorological data,medical data query,disease prevention and disease number forecast in this area.