| China is one of the countries most seriously affected by natural disasters in the world.Disasters not only threaten people's lives and safety,but also disrupt the smooth operation of regional economy.At present,the national economy departments are more closely related,and the losses caused by natural disasters are also more serious.Based on the computable general equilibrium model,this paper constructs Guangdong CGE model to explore the economic losses caused by natural disasters.In accordance with the top-down principle,the social accounting matrix of Guangdong Province was compiled by combining the input-output table,Guangdong Statistical Yearbook,China Financial Yearbook,China Statistical Yearbook and other materials.Moreover,this paper takes the strong typhoon "Mangkhut" in 2018 as an example to analyze the influence of typhoon on Guangdong province,which enriches the research of CGE model in the field of disaster management.The main conclusions of the simulation are as follows:(1)From the perspective of industrial output,typhoon?Mangkhut?has varying degrees of impact on the output of various industries in Guangdong Province.Among them,the output of manufacturing industry,construction industry,trade,catering and accommodation industry all fall by more than 1 percent compared with pre-disaster level.In addition,agricultural sector output falls by 0.955 percent.(2)From the perspective of labor input,the simulation results show that the typhoon causes a general decline in sector output,but also leads to an increase in the number of labor input in some sectors to a certain extent.Labor input in agriculture,mining,manufacturing and transportation have increased by 0.602%,2.587%,0.477% and 0.403% respectively.(3)As far as the residents are concerned,according to the results,the typhoon?Mangkhut?eventually causes a 2.732% drop in the income of residents in Guangdong Province.The decrease in residents' income leads to a corresponding decrease of1.59 percent in residents' expenditure on commodity consumption.At the same time,spending on the savings portion has also fallen.(4)As for the Guangdong government,the strong typhoon leads to a 2.159% decrease in the government revenue and a 0.121% drop in the government commodity consumption.In addition,tax revenue falls by 2.039 percent compared with the baseline scenario.(5)From the perspective of macro-economy,the simulation results show that the strong typhoon ?Mangkhut? results in a 2.645% drop in terms of GDP of Guangdong Province.The import volume of commodities declines significantly due to typhoon,such as agriculture,construction,trade,and other service department.In terms of export,Guangdong's overall export falls by 1.405 percent compared with pre-disaster level.Except for the slight increase of 0.14% for manufacture,the export prices of other kinds of commodities have declined to varying degrees.(6)Through sensitivity analysis of the parameters,it is found that the parameters have very little influence on the simulation results and are all within the acceptable range.That shows the CGE model is robust,and the simulation results can provide references for the government to carry out follow-up disaster management. |
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