Research On The Evolution Trend And Prediction Of Vegetation Coverage In Jiangsu Province From 2006 To 2015

Global warming,melting glaciers and extreme weather have brought increasingly significant negative effects on the growth environment of vegetation,and the fractional vegetation coverage(FVC)has gradually decreased.Jiangsu Province is a hot spot of land use and fractional vegetation coverage change.The process of urbanization and industrialization makes more and more cultivated land and woodland converted to towns,industrial and mining,and residential land,and the urban heat island effect intensifies.Due to the gap in economic development level and the different industrial structures between the north and the south,most of the current studies take the whole province as the research object,and few simulate and predict the future FVC.It is of great significance to study the changing trend,driving factors and future distribution of FVC for promoting ecological civilization construction.Based on the MODIS NDVI dataset from 2006 to 2015,this paper studied the change rule and trend of vegetation coverage in Jiangsu Province by using spatial statistical gravity shift,standard deviation ellipse,inter-annual difference and trend analysis.Then,the correlation analysis was used to study the response relationship between coverage and climate,terrain and human activities.Finally,the CA-Markov model was used to simulate the vegetation coverage information in Jiangsu Province in 2025.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The spatial distribution of FVC was lower in the south and higher in the north,which was the same as the change trend of land use pattern.The center of gravity of FVC migrated complicated,and the change of standard deviation ellipse was stable.During the study time,the fractional vegetation coverage decreased gradually,with high coverage as the main area,but the proportion of the area distribution of high coverage decreased gradually,while the proportion of low coverage increased gradually.In the central and northern part of Jiangsu,the vegetation coverage is mainly medium and high,while in the southern part,the vegetation coverage is mainly medium and low.From the change trend of pixel,more than half of the fractional vegetation coverage in the whole province remains stable,and the distribution proportion of degraded area is higher than that of improved area.(2)The average temperature in Jiangsu Province decreased from south to north,and the precipitation trend in growing season was almost the same as that in non-growing season.Besides the geographical latitude,the urban heat island effect was the main factor that caused the difference of the spatial distribution of climate factors.The vegetation degradation type was dominant in the 0-30 m elevation and gentle slope,and the effect of slope aspect on vegetation coverage was not significant.The GDP and urbanization rate were significantly negatively correlated with FVC,while the planting area of crops was significantly positively correlated with FVC.Human activities inhibited FVC.(3)The average Hurst index of FVC in Jiangsu Province was 0.56,which showed weak persistence,and the proportion of continuous degradation was greater than that of continuous improvement.CA-Markov model was used to simulate vegetation coverage in 2015,and the Kappa coefficient was 0.81,which met the accuracy standard and was better than the simulation results of GIS and Markov models.In 2025,the proportion of high vegetation coverage in Jiangsu Province would continue to decrease,and the proportion of medium vegetation coverage would become the smallest type.Climate change and social economy were two main factors of vegetation environment change.