Identification Of Development Types And Moderate Population Prediction Of Different Villages Under The Background Of Rapid Urbanization

Urbanization is the only way to realize industrial modernization,the main driving force for economic and social development,and the inevitable result of urban expansion and rural decline.At present,China is in and will be in an important stage of the development of new urbanization for a long time.The concept of "people’s urbanization" emphasized by the concept of new urbanization is gradually recognized by all sectors of society.However,in the process of rapid urbanization,a variety of urbanization anomalies occur,such as land urbanization is faster than population urbanization,permanent resident population urbanization is seriously ahead of household registration urbanization,etc.,which puts forward higher requirements for the study of moderate rural population quantity and spatial distribution pattern.At present,while China is accelerating the development of urbanization and expanding domestic demand,it is necessary to optimize the original research methods of rural population spatial distribution,reasonably predict the rural population in different regions,and put forward a reasonable spatial distribution pattern of rural population,which is of great significance to the healthy development of urban and rural areas.Rural type division is an inevitable requirement of rural revitalization strategy and land space planning.This study takes Wannian County as the research object,and carries out the rural development type classification and moderate population spatial distribution prediction based on the level of natural villages.This paper firstly builds a static evaluation system of rural development from four aspects of location factor,human resource factor,land resource factor and economic factor,and then builds a dynamic evaluation system of rural development from living space,industrial level,public service level and population scale on the basis of topographic and geomorphic zoning.In addition,projection pursuit model and gravity model based on genetic algorithm are used to comprehensively evaluate the level of rural development in Wannian County,and cluster analysis is used to classify the types of villages.Secondly based on the perspective of employment of wannian county,1035 natural villages agricultural employment population forecast,by applying the method of crop coefficient of the number of jobs to drive,to predict wannian,1035 natural villages moderately and spatial distribution of population,and to predict the population compared with present situation of population,give the rationalization suggestion for migration guide.The results show that :(1)according to the level of rural development and the gravitational effect of towns on the countryside,1035 natural villages in wannian county can be divided into 6 first-level types and 12 second-level types.(2)Forecast the spatial distribution of the moderate rural population from the perspective of employment,so as to obtain the forecast result of the spatial distribution of the rural employed population;Using the method of correlational coefficient to forecast the population driven by industry and forecast the rational distribution of urban and rural population.It is calculated that mesa has the largest agricultural employment population,mountainous and hilly areas have the least agricultural employment population,and plain areas are in the middle.(3)From the perspective of village level classification,the number of agricultural employees in L-TYPE villages is the highest(20115),and the number of agricultural employees in L-TYPE villages is the lowest(7083).From the point of village level classification,Ⅸlowest class village agricultural employment,of 2346 people;The highest Ⅳ class village agricultural employment,for 17989 people.(4)By comparing the predicted employed population with the current employed population,it is found that,in terms of rural types,the proportion of the areas requiring a large population outflow is 25.22%,the proportion of the villages that can basically maintain the status quo is 3.3%,and the proportion of the villages requiring a large population inflow is 71.48%.Which need population outflow area is centered largely in Ⅲ village,Ⅷ village and Ⅸ village.Need population flow area is centered largely in Ⅰ village,Ⅳ,Ⅴ village,village Ⅵ village,Ⅹ village andⅪ village.(5)According to calculation,only 2 villages with the same population as the predicted employment population were located in Zibu Town,belonging to the plain area,accounting for 0.21%;In 12.24% of the villages,the population under subsistence living standard is larger than the predicted population of agricultural employment.Most of these villages are located in the plain and platform areas,and the distribution of all types of villages is relatively uniform.In 87.55% of the villages,the population under subsistence living standard is smaller than the population predicted by agricultural employment,indicating that the output of cultivated land in 87.55% of the villages cannot reach the subsistence living standard of the population predicted based on the maximum land area under the average labor burden.Only Banbei Village,Fulin Village Committee of Peimei Town,under the living standard of the affluent type,predicted the population quantity is larger than that of the employed population,while the other villages are smaller than that of the employed population.