| Since the reform and opening up,China has participated in the global value chain division of labor system with its own advantages in labor resources and the weak competitive mode of "low-end embedding",realizing the "explosive growth" of goods trade.From the perspective of export scale,China’s total exports and manufacturing exports increased significantly from 1999 to 2017.The total exports rose from US$ 1949.31 billion to US$ 226.3346 billion,an increase of 10.6 times.Manufacturing exports rose from US$ 172.09 billion to US$ 2118.4 billion,an increase of 11.3 times.According to the data on the total value of global goods exports released by the World Trade Organization,China replaced the United States as the world’s largest exporter of goods for the first time in 2013.The World Bank database shows that since 2003,manufacturing exports have accounted for more than 90% of China’s total merchandise exports.However,the rapid growth of total exports is not enough to show that China’s manufacturing industry has strong export competitiveness,because in the context of global value chains,the increasing fragmentation of the production process has resulted in the value of most products actually coming from all parts of the world,not only belonging to the final exporter of products under the traditional gross value accounting framework.According to WIOD database,the domestic added value of China’s manufacturing exports continued to increase from 2000 to 2014,but compared with the total manufacturing exports,the proportion of domestic added value exports has not been significantly increased.Especially in recent years,with the declining demographic dividend,China’s manufacturing exports are facing an increasingly grim situation.In 2000,the difference between China’s total manufacturing exports and manufacturing added value exports was 33.448 billion US dollars,and in 2014 it has increased to 602.08 billion US dollars.There are many factors that affect the domestic added value of manufacturing exports.From the perspective of factor endowments,labor force,as one of the most important factors of production,has a profound impact on China’s participation in the global value chain and its status.The supply of labor force is of great significance to the promotion of China’s domestic added value of manufacturing exports.Therefore,for the healthy development of China’s foreign trade and overall economy,we must grasp and adapt to the current labor supply trend and find a new engine for upgrading the export value chain.This paper expounds the theoretical basis of the influence of labor supply on the domestic added value of manufacturing exports,and uses the panel data of 42 countries and the panel data of China’s manufacturing sub-sectors to make an empirical analysis,and finally puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for the research conclusion.First of all,this paper analyzes the influence of the quantity of labor supply on the domestic added value of manufacturing exports.An adequate quantity of labor supply is conducive to reducing labor costs and improving the degree of specialization in division of labor and cooperation.From the factor endowment theory,demographic dividend means that an increase in a country’s labor force can provide more human and capital support for export trade.The resulting economies of scale promote a country to obtain competitive price advantages and thus occupy a favorable position in international trade.Although from a single commodity point of view,the domestic added value of products exported by relying on low labor prices is very limited,the expansion of export scale will also bring about an increase in the domestic added value of manufacturing exports.Secondly,this paper analyzes the influence of labor supply structure on manufacturing industry’s export domestic added value.On the one hand,the aging of labor supply will lead to the optimization of export structure;on the other hand,it will also affect manufacturing industry’s export of domestic added value by crowding out scientific research resources and reducing learning and innovation capabilities.Thirdly,this paper analyzes the influence of the quality of labor supply on the domestic added value of manufacturing exports.The input of high-quality labor can improve the production efficiency and technical level of labor.The improvement of labor quality will promote the export of products that use this production factor intensively.The increase in the number of products with high-tech content in a country’s export commodities means that the competitiveness of export commodities is enhanced,and the export volume of high-tech products is increased.Accordingly,the domestic added value of manufacturing exports is correspondingly increased.Finally,the empirical analysis shows that increasing the supply of labor force,optimizing the supply structure of labor force and improving the quality of labor force can significantly improve the export of domestic added value of manufacturing industry.Increasing the supply of labor force can significantly improve the export value of manufacturing industry.Optimizing the supply structure of labor force and improving the supply quality of labor force can optimize the structure of export commodities and improve the quality of export commodities. |
