Research On The Impact Of Population Migration On Industrial Intensive Development In China

For a long time,China has mainly relied on the expansion of factor input to achieve industrial scale expansion and economic growth,emphasizing the important role of factor endowments and foreign direct investment.However,China has now entered the late stage of industrialization.The contribution of labor force and capital accumulation to industrial development has decreased significantly and will further decrease.The new impetus lies in improving productivity through improving factor quality and technological innovation.At present,due to the large-scale migration,China’s population development has entered a new stage.Population migration has begun and will continue to become a decisive factor affecting China’s population and economic transformation and development.It is of great significance to study how population migration between regions and industries promote the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure,thus affecting the transformation of industrial development mode.This is in response to the 19 th National Congress’ s request to strengthen the research on population development strategy.It is also of theoretical and practical significance for China to speed up the transformation of industrial development mode and promote high-quality economic development.On the basis of systematically clarifying the mechanism of population migration on industrial intensification development,this paper selects panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2003 to 2017,calculates the net migration rate and the level of industrial intensification,and then empirically tests the impact of population migration on industrial intensification by using common panel model and spatial panel model respectively.The results show that: Firstly,under the double equilibrium,the comprehensive effect of population migration on industrial intensive development is positive.Population migration will promote industrial intensive development through optimizing resource allocation,upgrading industrial structure and improving innovation capability.Secondly,population migration has intra-regional positive spatial spillover effect,which directly promotes the intensive development of industry in the region,while has inter-regional negative spatial spillover effect,which result in“adjacent competition” phenomenon.Thirdly,there is a significant spatial positive correlation in industrial intensification.Improving the level of industrial intensification is conducive to the realization of coordinated regional development.Fourthly,there are regional differences in the spatial spillover effects of population migration on industrial intensive development.The direct effects of population migration in the eastern and western regions are significantly positive,while in the central region are not significant.Fifthly,there is an endogeneity problem in migration.After controlling the endogeneity of the model by using instrumental variable,the coefficient value and significance of population migration have both improved.The promotion effect of population migration on industrial intensive development has been enhanced.Therefore,China should attach great importance to the spatial spillover effect of population migration,remove institutional barriers that hinder migration and build a new system to promote migration.Also,we should strengthen regional industrial division and cooperation and joint innovation to improve the level of industrial intensification,realize the deep integration of migration and industrial intensification development,thus promote the supply-side structural reform and high-quality development.