An Empirical Analysis Of The Influence Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Corporate Equity Change Behavior

In recent years,the global macro economy has gradually become more complicated.Governments of all countries are trying to stimulate the domestic economy through the regulation of economic policies in order to minimize the impact of the global financial crisis.Such frequent policy adjustments are largely This has caused the deviation of the expectations of the economic entities in the market from the actual situation.In recent years,the uncertainty of China’s economic policies has gradually increased.At present,China is at a time of transition of "main contradictions".It can be expected that a lot of adjustments will occur in economic policies.Listed companies are not only concerned about the direct impact of national economic policies,but also the uncertainty that comes with it.In such an economic environment,many experts and scholars are committed to studying how companies will adjust their behaviors and business strategies in the context of rising economic policy uncertainty.This article focuses on the impact of China’s economic policy uncertainty on the behavior of listed companies’ equity changes.In this paper,the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index(EPU)constructed by Baker et al.(2016)is used as a quantitative indicator of economic policy uncertainty.A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen cities from 2000 to 2018 in China are selected as research samples Using panel regression model to explore the impact of the uncertainty of China’s economic policy on the behavior of listed companies’ equity changes.This article divides the behavior of equity change into four types of analysis: initial public offering,equity refinancing,changes in the shareholding of Dong Gaojian,and corporate mergers and acquisitions.In the process of inquiry,according to the characteristics of different equity change behaviors,a representative enterprise type or industry classification is selected to explore the possible differences in the impact of economic policy uncertainty.Furthermore,the threshold panel model proposed by Hansen(1999)is used to explore whether there is a threshold effect on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the behavior of equity changes.In the end,the following conclusions were reached:(1)The increase in the uncertainty of economic policies will have a negative effect on corporate initial public offerings.This kind of negative effect is different between state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises.The state-owned enterprises face less negative impacts than private enterprises.(2)Uncertainty of economic policies will have a negative effect on corporate equity refinancing behavior.This effect is different in different industries: companies in the wholesale and retail industries are less affected than companies in other industries,while companies in the real estate industry are more affected.(3)Uncertainty in economic policies will have a negative impact on the behavior of corporate executives to increase or decrease their holdings.This effect differs between state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises:compared with non-state-owned enterprises,state-owned enterprises are less affected negatively.The impact of this impact in different industries is also different:compared with other industries,companies in the pharmaceutical industry are also less affected negatively.In addition,this effect also has a threshold effect.When the EPU index is lower than the threshold of 124.6427,it has a positive impact on the changes in the shareholding of the company’s directors and supervisors.When the EPU index is higher than the threshold,it is a negative effect.(4)Uncertainty in economic policies has negatively affected corporate mergers and acquisitions.This effect is different in different industries: mining companies are less affected than companies in other industries,and construction companies have the same conclusion.In addition,this effect also has a threshold effect.When the EPU index is higher than the threshold value of 164.46,it indicates that the uncertainty of economic policy has a greater impact on the scale of corporate M & A.The impact has diminished.Under the background of the increasing uncertainty of China’s current economic policy,based on the previous research,we make the following suggestions: First,when preparing for the promulgation of a new economic policy,the government not only needs to consider the direct impact of the policy on microeconomic entities.The impact should also take into account the potential indirect effects of uncertainty caused by economic entity expectations and actual differences.Second,this article empirically finds that moderate economic policy uncertainty will have a positive effect on some equity changes in enterprises.Therefore,the government should try to control economic policy uncertainty within this range,and encourage companies to actively participate through moderate uncertainty.Participate in the stock market.Third,due to the differences between different industries,the government should also consider the differences between industries when controlling the uncertainty of economic policies.