| Employment is the biggest livelihood,and the most basic support for economic development.Without a certain rate of economic growth,it is difficult to solve the problem of underemployment.In recent years,China’s economic growth rate has fallen significantly,and the employment problem has become increasingly prominent.Therefore,it is still an important theoretical and policy issue to coordinate the relationship between economic growth and employment in the new era,and to realize the positive interaction between economic growth and employment expansion.Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has maintained continuous high growth for 40 years,with real GDP growing from 367.87 billion yuan in 1978 to159.529.8 billion yuan in 2021,with an average annual growth rate of 9.2%,while the employed population has increased 1.9 times in 44 years,with an average annual growth rate of 1.4%,and on the whole,China shows a continuous economic growth and employment As a whole,China has shown sustained economic growth and employment growth.As the country with the largest population and labor force in the world,China has achieved relatively full employment in the face of the complex and changing employment situation and employment pressure,thanks to the continuous improvement of China’s employment policy system that is synergistic with macroeconomic policies and compatible with the construction of modern economic system on the one hand,and the pulling effect of China’s sustained and rapid economic growth on employment on the other.However,China’s economic growth and employment have not always maintained a "high growth,high employment" trend,and the relationship between economic growth and employment has been inconsistent in different periods and regions.Against the background of slowing economic growth and widening regional disparity,China’s employment situation is facing many pressures at this stage,mainly from structural employment problems,supply-side reform triggering a large number of job transfers,the substitution effect of technological progress on employment,and rising labor costs suppressing labor demand.Therefore,we need to analyze the challenges and risks in the field of employment,and explore the path of positive interaction between economic development and employment expansion from the perspective of the relationship between economic growth and employment,so as to provide effective policy suggestions for "stabilizing growth" and "promoting employment".This paper will also explore the interaction between economic development and employment expansion from the perspective of the relationship between economic growth and employment,and provide practical and effective policy recommendations for "stabilizing growth" and "promoting employment.This paper compares the theories on the relationship between economic growth and employment from Marxist economics and Western economics,and summarizes the mechanism of economic growth on employment based on the impact of economic growth on labor demand and supply,which provides a theoretical basis for further analysis of the causes of non-conformity between economic growth and employment.Based on provincial panel and municipal panel data,the relationship between economic growth and employment is studied from three perspectives using comparative analysis and empirical analysis,namely: the generality analysis of the relationship between economic growth and employment under a nonlinear framework;the stage differences of the relationship between economic growth and employment under different factordriven models of economic growth;and the regional differences of the relationship between economic growth and employment on the basis of considering spatial effects.Regional differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment based on spatial effects.Finally,an evaluation model of employment elasticity factors is established to further investigate the causes of the spatial and temporal differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment,and to propose policy recommendations.The core contents and conclusions of this paper include the following four parts.First,the spatio-temporal evolution of economic growth and employment in China is revealed from the current situation analysis.It is found that,in terms of the evolutionary characteristics of economic growth and employment,both the total economic volume and the employed population have increased substantially since the reform and opening up,but the growth rates of both are inconsistent and show phasespecific characteristics.The trend of transformation of economic growth structure and employment structure is consistent,but employment restructuring lags behind industrial restructuring.The driving effect of economic growth on overall employment has weakened,which is manifested by the year-on-year decline in overall employment elasticity and the gradual decrease in the number of all employment driven by each 1%of economic growth.However,the driving effect of economic growth on non-farm employment does not decline significantly,and the number of non-farm employment driven by each 1% economic growth is increasing;from the evolution characteristics of the relationship between regional economic growth and employment,the economic gap between the four regions gradually expands,while the gap of employment scale gradually decreases.The economic gap and employment scale gap between provinces have significant regional characteristics.The gap between the Northeast and the other three regions in terms of both economic aggregates and employment levels has gradually widened.The economic growth in the eastern,central and western regions is conducive to promoting the expansion of employment scale in the region,and the employment elasticity is positive but there is regional variability,while the employment elasticity in the northeastern region is the smallest and decreasing year by year.The spatial evolution characteristics of regional economic growth and employment are further examined through three coupling types: economic growth and employment rate,GDP per capita and employment rate,and GDP per capita and employment growth rate,and it is found that there are significant differences in the three coupling types among different regions,and the spatial non-consistency between economic growth and employment increases with the gradual slowdown of economic growth rate in the last decade.Second,the overall empirical analysis of the relationship between economic growth and employment in China concludes that economic growth can significantly promote the employment level,but there is a non-linear relationship between the two,i.e.,there is an obvious threshold effect characteristic of the impact of economic growth on employment,which is consistent with the law of diminishing marginal effect.Based on provincial panel data,the Based on the provincial panel data,the non-linear relationship between economic growth and employment is examined by using the threshold model regression analysis method,and it is found that: when the economic growth rate is lower than 0.083,economic growth has a significant positive effect on employment;when the economic growth rate is higher than 0.083,economic growth still has a positive effect on employment but the effect size is significantly weaker.However,due to the differences in the effects of economic growth under regional heterogeneity,the increase in organic composition of capital and the diminishing marginal effects of economic factors,the promotion of employment is weaker when the economic growth rate is in the high range.Further,the time and regional dimensions show that most of the regions in China have entered the zone of diminishing marginal effects,with more samples from the eastern and central regions and fewer samples from the western and northeastern regions having economic growth rates greater than the threshold.Third,an empirical analysis of the stage differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment in China shows that economic growth and employment are significantly positively correlated under different factor-driven models of economic growth,but there are stage differences in the employment effects of economic growth.Based on the factor-driven model of economic growth,the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2019 were divided into time periods,and the differences in the employment-driving effect of economic growth in different time periods were firstly analyzed empirically using the static panel model analysis method,and it was found that: the pulling effect of economic growth on employment was larger in the 1980 s,but this pulling effect gradually decreased after the 1990 s and remained After 2010,although the economic growth rate slowed down,the employment-boosting effect rebounded.The economic growth has a significantly larger effect on nonfarm employment than on overall employment.By introducing the interaction term between economic growth and time trend,it is found that the driving effect of economic growth on employment decreases with the increase of time.Secondly,a comprehensive evaluation model of the factors influencing employment elasticity is established using the systematic GMM model regression analysis method to explore the causes of the stage differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment,and it is found that: since the reform and opening up,China’s industrialization process has been accelerated,accompanied by the transformation of economic growth,the drastic adjustment of economic structure,and the reform of institutions and policies,and these factors within different stages on employment The differences in the effects of these factors on employment within different stages are the reasons for the non-conformity between economic growth and employment in China.Fourth,an empirical analysis of regional differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment in China shows that there is a significant positive relationship between economic growth and employment in different regions,but economic growth has a negative spillover effect on employment and there is regional heterogeneity,and there are regional differences in the employment effects of economic growth.Based on the municipal panel data,the spatial weight matrix of economic distance is established on the basis of the spatial effect of economic growth,and the spatial econometric analysis is applied to analyze the differences of economic growth on employment in different regions empirically.If the spatial effect is not considered,the impact of economic growth on employment will be overestimated.At the regional level,there are significant regional differences in the effect of economic growth on employment,with the greatest effect of economic growth on employment in the eastern cities,a relatively small effect of economic growth on employment in the northeast,and a comparable effect of economic growth on employment in the central and western cities.There is also regional heterogeneity in the spillover effects of economic growth on employment in China,with the largest direct and total effects in the eastern region and negative spillover effects on employment in the central,western and northeastern regions.Secondly,a comprehensive evaluation model of employment elasticity influencing factors is established by using systematic GMM model regression analysis to explore the causes of regional differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment,and it is found that: the differences in the degree of regional industrialization,the level of technological progress,the scale of private economy,the upgrading of industrial structure,the level of human capital and the urbanization rate are the main reasons for the different employment absorption capacity of economic growth in the four major regions In addition,the regional heterogeneity of the effects of each factor on employment elasticity is the reason for the regional differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment.In summary,this paper argues the spatial and temporal differences in the relationship between economic growth and employment in China from multiple perspectives and at a deeper level,and analyzes the causes of the spatial and temporal differences.Finally,based on the findings of this paper and the reality of economic growth and employment,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed.In order to provide scientific theoretical support and empirical reference for the goal of "stabilizing growth" and "promoting employment" in China. |
PDF Full Text Request