| The current degree of economic globalization is high,forming a situation in which the economies of various countries are closely linked and increasingly interdependent.As a historical process,economic globalization promotes the overall growth of the world economy and the further development of international trade and international investment.There are many means of economic globalization,including international trade and international investment.Among them,international trade is an important means to support economic globalization.It is also an important way to implement the "going out and bringing in" policy of economic development since China’s reform and opening up.However,international trade is bound to accompany trade frictions,and its development is affected by various factors,mainly economic factors,institutional factors and political factors.Compared with other factors,political factors have the characteristics of suddenness,complexity and great variability.The special characteristics of political factors make their impact on international trade more significant.In addition,existing research focuses on economic and institutional factors.Some studies only explore the impact of political events on trade from a qualitative perspective.The analysis of political factors is inadequate.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct a more in-depth assessment of the impact of political factors on international trade impacts.This article selects specific countries to study the influence of political factors.Political events involve a wide range of factors and complex inducements,such as military conflicts and territorial issues.And it is difficult to classify them as general research.Therefore,typical political events related to China are selected for analysis.Take the " Diaoyu Islands" incident in China and Japan as an example to discuss the impact of political events on China and Japan.Take the "Sade" incident in China and South Korea as an example.Research on causal inference of policy assessment is extensive,evaluating public policy,medical treatment,specific projects etc.This idea is often applied to the research of international trade.Using the causal inference method for policy evaluation,the HCW used by Hsiao et al in 2012.Find the stable relationship between the intervention group and the control group individuals before the policy shock occurs(determine the optimal weights of the control group individuals so that their weighted composite results are closest to the individual results of the intervention group).Then use the weighting system and the control group information after policy shock to extrapolate to get the counterfactual result of the intervention group.Effectively stripping the interference of other influencing factors,make reasonable estimates of political events,and perform robustness tests.In order to reveal the evaluation effect fully,the traditional practice of considering only the absolute quantity unilaterally and its impact on a single party are abandoned.And the three dimensions of absolute quantity,growth rate and proportion are taken into account,covering the aggregate indicator,speed indicator and structure indicator.Based on the Wind database,29 economies are selected to synthesize the monthly total exports of the country to China’s mainland,the export growth rate to China’s mainland,the total exports of the country to China’s mainland / the total exports of the country,the total exports of the country to China’s mainland /China’s total imports.Four specific data forms are analyzed.The analysis of the research results,through the description of statistical analysis,found that the trade frictions caused by political events all have an impact on the countries concerned and have almost no impact on China.To a certain extent,it also brought a "promotion" effect.Further HCW,the results show that political events have a general and significant impact on both parties,especially in recent years,trade frictions have seriously affected the progress and stability of international trade development;the impact on the originating countries is greater than the impact on the receiving country;the impact on the large trading nations is smaller than that on the small economies;over time,the duration of the impact is shorter and weakened,even a "promotion" effect appearing.Therefore,with the passage of time,international trade is becoming more frequent and economic ties are closer.The impact of political events on international trade will be wider and more severe.Political conflicts between countries should be avoided as much as possible to maintain the stable development of economic globalization. |
