Research On The Influence Of Postponing Retirement Policy On Financial Stability And Domestic Capital Growth Rate

According to the latest survey of relevant institutions,the aging rate of China’s population is rising rapidly year by year,from 7.98 percent in 1982 to 17.9 percent in 2018.In the future,the main trend of China’s population structure will still be the aging of the population,so the aging of the population has gradually become an important issue facing China.The rapid growth of the elderly population will have an important impact on the social and economic development,the adjustment and reform of the economic structure framework,the improvement of the national pension system,and the government’s fiscal revenue and expenditure.Therefore,in view of the above reasons,the national research has made a progressive plan to delay the retirement age.In the context of aging,it is of great significance to study the broad impact of postponing retirement policy on maintaining the market labor flow and stabilizing government financial revenue and expenditure.To delay retirement as the research background,this article,therefore,to establish relevant theoretical models and empirical test,analyzes the policy under the background of government revenue and expenditures stable capital growth speed changes with the law both home and abroad,analysis of policy implementation effect,predict prospect of policy implementation,and put forward pertinence to the next step of an ageing population.Respectively in this paper,through establishing delay retirement of revenue and expenditures expected stability,capital growth rate of domestic law of the theoretical framework,using the threshold test(threshold regression)and the numerical simulation for the empirical analysis method step by step,using the data of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2017,the configuration and related parameters,respectively to study the delay retirement for financial stability,influence relation between capital growth rate of domestic law.Based on the model framework construction and empirical test,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)There is a double threshold effect between delaying retirement and financial stability.When the socialized wage ratio of the elderly is taken as the threshold variable,delayed retirement has a positive positive correlation with the stability of financial expectations,but there is a difference in the degree of influence.In-depth analysis shows that when the threshold value range is q ∈(0.206,0.324),the positive promotion effect of delayed retirement on the expected financial revenue and expenditure stability is relatively lower than q<0.206 and q>0.324,namely the degree of positive impact is reduced.(2)Delaying retirement has a slowing effect on the growth rate of domestic capital per worker.The study found that with the increase of labor working hours and the increase of retirement age,the growth rate of domestic labor capital decreased,but the measured values were still positive,indicating that domestic labor capital still maintained a rising trend,but the rising rate gradually decreased.At the same time,it is found that when the retirement age increases,the growth rate of labor-per-capital slows down,consumption decreases in young age,and social security income increases in old age.However,the reason is closely related to the social and economic development strategy and other systematic factors,so the advantages of delaying the implementation of retirement policy outweigh the disadvantages,which should be supported.