A Study On The Evaluation Of The Projection Rights Of Domestic Films

The film industry has shown a vigorous development trend in the last decade,especially in the last five years,with various kinds of subject-matter films blooming everywhere under the circumstances of national policies,audience demand,international exchanges and so on,and the domestic film market has unlimited potential and development space,during this period,a number of outstanding directors and actors emerged,more and more domestic creators were recognized internationally,and Chinese films gradually went to the world.But there was a lot of uncertainty in the early stages of film production,with investors investing in new films based on experience and industry trends,the reality of the returns on film investment is not encouraging.This research is based on the fact that the investors in the early stage of the movie,mainly after the project plan is decided,use the information obtained by division to predict the movie box office,from the perspective of the movie investors,through the establishment of a box office prediction model to evaluate the value of a film’s screening rights,as a reference for investors to make investment choices,the research content involved includes the following points: first,this paper mainly studies domestic movies,because co-production in the production process and account sharing system and similar to domestic films,this article will be classified as domestic films.At the same time,animated films have their own characteristics compared with live action films,so this type is not taken into account.Second,film copyright,also known as film copyright,is defined in Copyright Law of South Korea as 17 rights,and film copyright as a kind of copyright,more than 90% of its value is reflected in the movie box office,which corresponds to the value of the right to show.Therefore,this paper mainly studies the value of the right to show movies,the prediction model of the movie Box Office is established,and the value of the investment share of the investor or the producer is evaluated by the method of saving the license fee.The main research methods of this paper are literature review,statistical analysis,empirical analysis.There are three points of innovation: First,in terms of research content,from the results of Literature Research,at present domestic and foreign scholars’ research on the value of film copyright mostly focuses on the analysis of the applicability of the traditional three major evaluation methods and the factors that affect the movie box office,there are few scholars who evaluate the film copyright systematically.This paper considers all the factors that affect the film box office,establishes the prediction model of the film box office,and uses the method of saving license fee to evaluate the film copyright,which is a systematic evaluation system Second,the sample selection of empirical analysis,previous scholars have not used a large sample for empirical analysis,the sample selection range is between50-200,this paper will conduct empirical analysis of 1539 samples in the five years from2015 to 2019,more extensive and representative,the expectation model will be more reasonable;third,the Research Angle has the pertinence.Through the literature research,at present some scholars stand in the investor’s angle to carry on the box office forecast model establishment,but mostly is establishes the post-screening model,however,for the investors or producers,the post-screening factors of the films when they are invested are not certain,and more of them are predicted through the relevant data of the same type and the same period of the films in previous years,it can not reflect the future situation from the perspective of the target film itself.This paper establishes a pre-screening prediction model for the internal factors that can be determined at the time of investment,and makes a reasonable prediction of the value of the film at the time of investment,reduce the investment risk of the investor.This paper establishes a multiple linear regression model to predict the movie box office,familiarity,director,screenwriter,lead actor,genre(action,comedy,Plot,love,crime,fantasy,suspense),format,production level were selected as explanatory variables,and box office as explanatory variables,through the regression analysis of SPSS software,the results show that there is a positive correlation between the movie Box Office and the director,the leading actor,the screenwriter,the format and the production level,and a negative correlation between the movie box office and the plot,comedy,love and crime,there was no correlation with familiarity,type of action and fantasy,and suspense.Finally,a multivariate linear regression model for box-office forecasting is established by eliminating unreasonable variables.The 20 films released in the second half of 2020 are selected to test the model.The results show that the 20 films selected are representative and inclusive,with an error of less than 20% accounting for 15% and an error of less than 40%accounting for 65%,this result is within the acceptable range of the prophase investment of the film production,and further verifies the feasibility of the regression prediction model.This model is then used to predict the box office value of the summer release of the 2021 movie infinite depth,to estimate the value of the returns to investors,and to analyze the sensitivity of the parameters of the license fee savings method,the results show that the box office revenue is sensitive to the evaluation results,and the discount rate and the days of release are not sensitive to the evaluation results.