The Study Of Disasters And Food Security In Henan In Ming Dynasty

Natural disasters have a huge impact on food security.Data and literature methods are used to analyze the frequency,seasonal,and spatial distribution of low-temperature disasters of water,drought,locusts,and frost and snow in Henan Province in the Ming Dynasty.Correlation analysis methods are used for disasters and famines.Correlation analysis was performed,and statistical methods were used to calculate the average grain price in various periods of the Ming Dynasty and Henan grain prices during the disaster period.The results show:(1)There were 395 drought,locust,frost and Frost and snow low-temperature disasters in Henan in the Ming Dynasty.Floods and droughts accounted for a large proportion,accounting for 72.15% of the total occurrences.Level 1 mild and level 2moderate water,drought,locust and Frost and snow low-temperature disasters occurred more frequently,accounting for 89.37% of the total.There were four periods of concentration during the occurrence of a level 1 mild flood.Level 2 moderate droughts occurred frequently after 1433,and level 3 severe extreme droughts occurred frequently from 1844 to 1528.Level 2 moderate locusts were mainly concentrated in 1509— In the two periods of 1558 and 1599-1643,the first-level mild frost and snow low-temperature disasters were concentrated between 1618 and 1637,and the second-level moderate frost and snow low-temperature disasters were concentrated between 1620 and 1643.(2)The trend of the frequency of floods is divided into 3 declining stages and 3 rising stages.The trend of the frequency of droughts is divided into 1 declining stage,2 rising stages and 1 gentle stage.The trend of locust frequency changes Divided into two declining stages and two rising stages,the frequency of Frost and snow low-temperature disasters is generally an upward trend.After 1619,the frequency of water,drought,locust,and frost and snow disasters are all increasing.The flood anomaly change is divided into 5stages,which are low flood occurrence periods in the first and third stages,and high flood occurrence periods in the second and fourth stages,and in the fifth stage,the low flood occurrence and high incidence periods.Alternately,the drought anomaly changes are divided into 5 stages.The first and fourth stages are low drought occurrence periods,the locust disaster anomaly changes are divided into 6 stages,and the Frost and snow low-temperature disaster anomaly changes are divided into Six stages,the first stage,the third stage and the fifth stage belong to the period of low frost and snow low temperature disaster,and the second stage,the fourth stage and the sixth stage belong to the high rate of frost and snow low temperature disaster.(3)The frequency of droughts is highest in spring,the frequency of locusts is lowest,the frequency of droughts is highest in summer,the frequency of frost and snow low-temperature disasters is the lowest,the frequency of floods in autumn is highest,the frequency of low-temperature frost and snow disasters is lowest,and winter The frequency of disasters in spring,summer and autumn is relatively low.Droughts occur most frequently in winter and locusts occur the least.(4)The frequency of floods,droughts,locusts and frost and snow disasters in Kaifeng is the highest.The frequency of floods in Ruzhou is the lowest.The frequency of droughts in Nanyang is the lowest.The frost and snow low-temperature disasters occurred in Hezhou the lowest,with the total number of disasters occurring in Kaifeng Prefecture,followed by Henan Province,and the lowest total number of disasters occurring in Ruzhou.The eastern Henan region has the most floods,and the western Henan,southern Henan,and northern Henan regions have the most droughts.(5)Floods,droughts,and locusts have significant positive correlations with famine occurrences.The locust disaster has the highest pearson correlation value,and the famine and locust disasters have the highest correlation.There is no significant correlation between the low-temperature frost and snow disasters and famines.There is no statistical significance,and there is no correlation between the level of frost and snow disasters and famine.(6)Severe floods,droughts,locusts,and frost and snow disasters will all lead to poor harvests.Both the poor harvests and the obstruction of transport lanes caused by disasters will affect the amount of grains.Water and drought disasters affect the transport of grains.The low-temperature frost and snow disaster will not affect the transportation of grain.(7)The post-disaster grain price was highest during the Chongzhen period,followed by the Chenghua period,and the post-disaster grain price was 32 times the pre-disaster grain price during the Chongzhen period,and the post-disaster grain price was 4 times the pre-disaster grain price during the Jiajing period.Grain prices have the largest impact,followed by the Chongzhen period,and the Jiajing period has the least impact on food prices.(8)The possibility of drought and floods leading to famine under the background of cold and warm climates.Floods are more likely to cause famines in warm periods,and droughts are more likely to cause famines in cold periods.The possibility of drought-causing famines in cold and warm climates flood.(9)The cumulative effect of disasters in time will first cause crops to reduce or even fail to produce multiple crops.Secondly,multiple disasters will be equally important in the same year,which will increase the possibility of famine and plague.The spatial superposition effect of disasters will first have a serious impact on agricultural harvests in a region,and secondly,repeated disasters in a region will cause exile of the people,resulting in a shortage of local labor.