Influencing Factors And Prediction Analysis Of Health Care Expenditure Under Health Poverty Alleviation

Since the eighteen Party’s Congress,the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as its core has put the task of tackling poverty alleviation into a prominent position in governing the country.According to the requirements of targeted poverty alleviation,healthy poverty alleviation has become the key to achieve comprehensive poverty alleviation.With the gradual implementation of health poverty alleviation measures,the cost of medical and health care has become one of the focus topics.Based on the background of health poverty alleviation,this paper analyzes and forecasts the influencing factors of residents’ health care level.The research results provide a reliable theoretical basis and reference for residents’ health care system.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Build a coordination degree model between healthy poverty alleviation and residents’ health level,analyze the statistical data of Fuyang City from 2017 to 2019,and find that the coordination degree changes from weak imbalance to low coordination.The results show that the coordination between health poverty alleviation and residents’ health level is gradually improved,which means that health poverty alleviation has promoted the continuous optimization of health structure and achieved good results.(2)The grey correlation analysis method is used to screen the important factors affecting medical and health care expenditure.Through the research,it is found that the medical resource supplier,economic factors,aging problem and education level can significantly promote medical and health care expenditure.(3)Combining the results of grey relational analysis,the traditional GM(1,1)forecasting model is optimized,and a multi-dimensional grey model GM(1,N)is constructed.After the model passes the test,the medical care expenditure in the next five years is predicted.The results show that the GM(1,N)is in line with the excellent model standard,and it is predicted that the medical care expenditure will increase by about 7%in the next five years,which provides a practical and scientific theoretical basis for the later health poverty alleviation work and medical system reform.