Dynamic Adjustment And Optimization Method For Allocating Emergency Resource In Epidemic Controlling

In recent years,the occurrence of various sudden outbreaks of diseases has caused great harm to people’s health and property.It has also attracted extensive attention from the government and academia.The suddenness,uncertainty and limited resources of the outbreak make the emergency response more difficult.How to allocate the limited resources reasonably has always been an important problem in theory and practice.Traditional epidemic resource allocation is mainly based on static allocation,without considering the impact of dynamic changes of relevant parameters on emergency resource allocation during epidemic spread.Based on this,this paper studied the allocation of emergency resources in epidemic relief from the perspective of dynamic planning,so as to make the established dynamic adjustment and optimization model of epidemic emergency resources more consistent with the actual situation,and thus provide valuable advice for decision-makers to formulate emergency response strategies.In this paper,the basic model of dynamic adjustment and optimization of emergency resources allocation is proposed firstly.In this basic model,we use the SEIHR-D infectious disease dynamics model to predict the change of various group of people,and build the isolation ward demand function which is based on the number of patients predicted at each time.Then we take the minimum number of unsatisfied demand as the optimization target and constructe a basic model of dynamic adjustment and optimization of emergency resources allocation.We did not take into account the population flow in the affected areas and the changes in the hospitalization rate of patients under resource constraints in the basis model,so this paper further proposed and designed an improved model for the dynamic adjustment and optimization of emergency resource allocation.In the improved model,we consider the impact of population flow between different epidemic affected areas on epidemic spread.At the same time,we change the proportion of patients hospitalized from a fixed value in the basic model to a dynamically adjusted state variable.This variable is determined by the number of isolation wards,which is determined by emergency budget.Research findings of this paper:(1)In the whole emergency response process of epidemic situation,the cost of isolation ward accounts for the largest proportion of emergency budget funds(67.2%),then is the cost of hospitalization(32.8%).It indicates that in the emergency response process of epidemic situation,funds are mainly used for the operation of isolation wards.(2)There is a certain difference between the allocation of epidemic budget and the proportion of population in the epidemic affected areas when considering the changes of population flow and hospitalization rate.In general,the proportion of emergency rescue budget received by population inflow regions is slightly higher,while the population outflow regions is slightly lower.(3)Among the seven parameters analyzed in this paper,epidemic infection rate and hospitalization rate have the most obvious influence on epidemic rescue.For every 1%increase in the epidemic infection rate,the emergency budget needed for the epidemic will increase by about 10%.A 1% reduction in the rate of hospitalization would increase emergency budget requirements by about 15%.