Spatial-Temporal Evolution And Driving Factors Of Virtual Cultivated Landconstruction Land

During the process of urbanization,the area of construction land and cultivated land showed complex characteristics of spatiotemporal changes.The changes behind the two reflected the problems in the process of urbanization.The purpose of this paper was to reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of the cultivated land and construction land.In order to discover the contradiction between the change of cultivated land and construction land in the process of urbanization in China,based on the study of virtual resources,virtual cultivated land and virtual construction land were proposed.The amount of land required for human production and life is reflected in virtual cultivated land and virtual construction land.In order to probe the problem of the cultivated land and construction land,this paper analyzes the driving factors of virtual cultivated land and virtual construction land.First of all,based on literature collection and sorting,the definition of cultivated land and construction land was clarified.Then the virtual cultivated land and virtual construction land were defined with reference to the connotation of virtual resources.The ratio of virtual cultivated land to cultivated land and the ratio of virtual construction land to construction land referred to virtual cultivated land and virtual construction land were divided by cultivated land and construction land respectively.They reflected the productive efficiency of cultivated land and construction land respectively.Finally,this paper calculates the per capita virtual cultivated land in rural areas and the per capita virtual construction land in urban areas.They effectively reflect the productivity of per capita arable land or construction land.Comparative analysis was used in temporal studies,Jenks and ESDA were used in spatial studies.Based on statistical data of 2003-3017,this paper analyzed virtual cultivated land and virtual construction land in detail.“Ordinary regressiongeographically weighted regression-geographically and temporally weighted regression” was established to analyze the driving factors of virtual cultivated land and virtual construction land.The conclusion of this paper is as follows.(1)From 2003 to 2017,China’s virtual cultivated land showed an overall upward trend,but the growth rate of virtual cultivated land was decreasing.China’s ratio of virtual cultivated land to cultivated land slowly increased,and had never exceeded the threshold “1”.China’s cultivated land production and utilization efficiency could be greatly improved.The per capita virtual cultivated land in rural areas grew and increased rapidly.In spatial analysis,virtual cultivated land was increasing from west to east and decreases from north to south.The ratio of virtual cultivated land to cultivated land was increasing from west to east in latitude direction,and was higher in the middle;and lower in the north and south in longitude direction.The per capita virtual cultivated land in rural areas was declining from west to east in the in latitude direction,and was increasing slightly in the east.The per capita virtual cultivated land in rural areas was increasing from north to south,and the increase was slowly increasing.(2)In the temporal analysis,there was a large increase in virtual construction land,the ratio of virtual construction land to construction land and the per capita virtual construction land in urban areas from 2003 to 2017.In past 15 years,the development of construction land was much faster than that of cultivated land,and the production and utilization efficiency of construction land was significantly higher than cultivated land.In spatial analysis,the trend of virtual construction land and the ratio of virtual construction land to construction land was similar.This trend was high in the east and low in the west in latitude direction,and reversed U-shaped curve in longitude direction.The per capita virtual construction land in urban areas was U-shaped curve in latitude direction,and reversed U-shaped curve in longitude direction.(3)The ratio of virtual cultivated land to cultivated land and the ratio of virtual construction land to construction land scientifically reflected the efficiency of production and utilization of cultivated land and construction land.Compared with the existing land production efficiency measurement,there is no indicator system of land production efficiency for the ratio of virtual cultivated land to cultivated land.This not only simplified the calculation of cultivated land production efficiency,but also avoided the differences caused by different index choices.Cross-analysis of the ratio of virtual cultivated land to cultivated land and the per capita virtual cultivated land in rural areas could determine the productivity of cultivated land.The production capacity of construction land could be judged in the same way.According to the analysis of the productive capacity of cultivated land and construction land,the productivity of cultivated land and construction land was relatively low in most areas,and relatively high in some areas.(4)The impact intensity analysis on the driving factors of virtual cultivated land and virtual construction land found that: economic driving factors > social driving factors > natural driving factors.The intensity of the influence of natural driving factors was gradually decreasing.Economic and social driving factors were complex.They both promoted and suppressed virtual cultivated land and virtual construction land.(5)In spatiotemporal driven model of virtual cultivated land and virtual construction land,Ordinary regression assumed the basic test function,geographically weighted regression characterized spatial characteristics of driving factors,geographically and temporally weighted regression added temporal characteristics of driving factors.spatiotemporal driven model could be an important tool in land management.This paper puts forward some policy recommendations:(1)At the management level,first,the production and utilization efficiency of cultivated land should be comprehensively improved.Second,the production and utilization efficiency of construction land in the central and western regions should be also improved.Finally,differential land management based on production capacity of cultivated land and construction land should be carried out.(2)At the economic policy level,regional industries need to be upgraded and transferred,portfolio structure should be optimized;(3)At the social level,population movements should be guided correctly,and rural transportation should be promoted deeply.