Research On Cost Risk Assessment Of International EPC Project

With the continuous advance of “Go Global” and “The Belt and Road "initiative,increasingly Chinese contractors participate in the international contracting market in the relevant policy guidance.At the same time,the tough competitive environment of the international contracting market,coupled with limited the knowledge of the contractor to undertake the project location of the social,economic and political environment and risk prediction insufficiently,results in the contract price of project less than expected frequently.And EPC general contracting is the most popular project management mode in the world,and it is applied to all kinds of projects.For the international EPC project contractor,how to determine the size of the project risk and manage the risk effectively is not only related to the overall benefit of a single project,but also to the development and survival of the whole general contractor.First of all,after elaborating the EPC project risk related theory,risk identification and risk assessment,using the risk factors of EPC projects in China for reference,this paper synthesizes documents and historical engineering practice data.And this paper uses fishbone diagram to clarify the relationship between various factors and identify them,and uses other methods,such as brainstorming,to further improve and supplement potential risk factors in the same time.Finally forming international EPC project risk index system that including 8first level indexes such as natural factors,social environmental factors,economic factors,political factors,management factors,financial factors,human factors and technical factors,and 28 two levels such as climate and environment,geo geographic wind insurance,and natural disasters etc.Secondly,considering the advantages of ANP and Grey-clustering method,the evaluation model of ANP-Grey clustering method is constructed for the evaluation of international EPC project risk.This mode calculates the weighted super matrix of risk factors by the ANP method,and the whitening weights by the Grey-clustering method.Next combining them,this paper gets the comprehensive clustering coefficient of risk factors under different grayscale.Finally,the ANP-grey clustering evaluation model was applied to the SD project in Tanzania,and the risk assessment was carried out.The results showed that the overall risk assessment results of the project were "high",and the specific risk factors that should be focused on are climate and environment,inflation risk,price fluctuation risk,social security situation.And the specific risk factors that must be focused on are climate and environment,inflation risk,price change risk,social security situation,land expropriation and demolition risk,and government clean efficiency,which are consistent with the actual situation.It can be seen that the method is effective and feasible.