| As a major engineering project,the subway has the characteristics of large construction scale,high cost,and complicated risk factors.At the same time,its construction route planning is also an important restrictive factor.Reasonable route planning can improve the accessibility of regional transportation,stimulate economic development,realize the promotion of land value,and effectively guide the sustainable development of the city.Unreasonable line planning may lead to delayed construction period or unpredictable passenger flow,which will bring unpredictable losses to subway construction,operation and urban economic development.Therefore,the research on risk management of subway construction line planning has received attention from all aspects.Aiming at risk management theory and subway construction planning theory,this paper focuses on the main problems such as insufficient research on subway construction line planning risk,lack of index data in line planning,and lack of analytical methods and theory.This paper comprehensively adopts literature retrieval,data analysis,DEMATEL,ISM,Bayesian network and other methods to study the risk assessment method of subway construction line planning.The main tasks include:（1）Analyze the research status of subway line planning and identify research problems.From the research status of line planning influencing factors,line planning research status and subway risk assessment research,it is found that there are deficiencies in the risk management of subway construction line planning.（2）Identify and build a risk assessment index system for subway construction line planning.Identify risk factors from six aspects: construction feasibility,policy standards,urban development planning,ride comfort and safety,management risk,and passenger flow risk,and establish a risk evaluation index system for subway construction line planning.（3）Use the DEMATEL-ISM method to establish a hierarchical structure model of risk factors for subway construction line planning.Firstly,analyze the influence relationship between risk factors and the degree of influence between the factors by the DEMATEL.Secondly,the ISM is used to filter out the influence relationship with a small influence coefficient by setting a threshold,and a 6-level hierarchical structure model is established.Express the relationship between risk factors intuitively.（4）A risk assessment method for subway construction line planning based on Bayesian network is proposed.The Bayesian network topology is varied from a hierarchical structure model,the evaluation value of each variable is obtained according to the expert experience,and the probability distribution of the prior probability and conditional probability of the variable is determined by the triangular fuzzy number.The Bayesian simulation software Ge NIe is used to analyze the posterior probability,key risk factors and sensitive risk factors and determine the risk level.（5）Applied research was carried out.Using the constructed subway construction line planning risk assessment model,the application research is carried out in the line planning of Yantai Metro Line1,and the validity of the model is verified.The evaluation results show that the line planning of Yantai Metro Line 1 is at a general risk.Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward according to the evaluation results. |
