| Metro construction is a complex and systematic project,which is characterized by many specialties,wide distribution,long construction period and great influence from surrounding areas.The construction period management of metro construction is the key and difficult point in the owner’s project management.It is an important subject in the project management of the owner to predict the construction period scientifically and reasonably and to carry out effective construction period management.According to the construction situation of Guangzhou Metro lines from 2010 to 2020,the actual construction period of some lines lags behind that of the planned construction period,with the proportion of delayed projects reaching 45%.The project delay rate ranges from 9% to 106%,with an average of 36%.This paper conducts a multi factorial analysis on the reasons that influence each stage period of metro construction and puts forward the direction of construction period control.And then,the multiple regression analysis method is used to establish the metro shield construction period prediction model.Finally,the feasibility of the prediction model is tested by empirical research.First of all,the present construction period management system of Guangzhou Metro is introduced.Then,multiple-factor analysis was carried out on the related causes which affect each stage period of metro construction.The analysis shows that the average construction period of metro is 75 months.Among them,the preliminary stage accounts for 19% of the total construction period.Because the preliminary stage is easily affected by external factors,there is a large risk of construction period,and construction period management needs to strengthen the process control.The construction stage of civil engineering major accounts for60% of the total construction period.The construction period of this stage needs to be controlled seriously.Further analysis shows that shield construction is the key point of construction period control in civil engineering construction stage.Secondly,the prediction model of metro shield construction period is studied.The length of each stratum and the excavation period are selected as the independent and dependent variables of the prediction model.The data samples are collected for multiple regression analysis,and the prediction model of the shield construction period is obtained.Through various tests,it is concluded that the prediction model has good explanatory effect,the model and its variables have statistical significance,and the residuals are in line with the hypothesis of normal distribution.Finally,taking Line 13 as an example,the shield construction period is predicted by using the construction period prediction model,and compared with the actual construction period.The result shows that the average error is 13%.The relative error is within the allowable range,which verifies the feasibility and accuracy of the prediction model to a certain extent.And based on the forecast results,the project duration management and control measures are proposed.The research of this paper shows that the core of shield construction period management is to explore,sort out and analyze the geological conditions in advance,and on this basis,to predict the shield construction period by using the multiple regression model.Then,according to the predict results,the targeted measures such as technology and management are taken to achieve the goal of effective construction period control.By adding and perfecting the sample data in the future,the prediction accuracy of the model can be further improved.This prediction model can provide a more accurate and reliable method in predicting shield construction period.At the same time,it helps to identify the key points of the metro construction period,and study relevant measures to ensure the construction period in advance,so as to realize effective control of the metro construction period. |
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