Research On Operation Characteristics And Control Strategy Of Solar Heat Pump Hot Water System Based On Dynamic Load Forecast

With the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization in our country,the energy consumption of residential buildings has gradually become a hot issue of concern from all walks of life,and the energy consumption of the hot water system accounts for a relatively high proportion of the total energy consumption of civil buildings.The improper control strategy of the system is an important reason for the large energy consumption of the hot water system.Studying the operating characteristics of the hot water system,load forecasting and control strategies,and promoting the energy saving and consumption reduction technology of the hot water system are of great significance to the realization of building energy saving,environmental protection and improvement of people’s livelihood.The control strategy of the actual hot water system is relatively simplified,and there is a certain margin of design for the system heating.And the cooperation between the heat pump and the solar energy lacks scientific methods,which makes the solar energy utilization rate low and the overall system efficiency is low.The load time sequence distribution characteristics of the hot water system will have a greater impact on the system’s heat use and water control.Meteorological parameters will affect the system’s operating characteristics and at the same time affect the load distribution.Therefore,the research on load forecasting and the random distribution characteristics of meteorological parameters is of great significance.Based on an actual case of hot water system of a university,this paper takes solar heat pump hot water system as the research object,constructs a thermal model of heat pump hot water unit coupled with solar collector.The KNN algorithm is used to predict the load of the timing water supply system,and the error analysis of the forecast results proves the feasibility of the method;On the basis of fully considering the user load and meteorological parameter distribution characteristics,a hot water system dynamic control strategy by using the Markov chain predictive model,and the adaptability of the control strategy and system influencing factors are analyzed.Energy-saving expectations and operational reliability are used as the evaluation indicators of the control strategy,the strategy-probability model was rasied to provide a reference for the engineers in the operation of the hot water system,which is more intuitive and reliable.At the same time,it brings certain energy-saving benefits for us.In addition,the influence degree of the key parameters in the design process of the hot water system structural parameters and the optimized design scheme were explored.After the contrast of the system operation of the new strategy and the original,it was found that the annual energy saving expectation and operational reliability of the system have been improved.