| Air source heat pump has been widely used in clean energy heating due to its advantages of high efficiency,energy saving and no pollution.However,it also causes a significant increase in the load of the power grid in winter and aggravates the instability of the power grid operation.Accurate energy consumption prediction of air source heat pump heating system can provide basis for power grid planning and dispatching.As a flexible load,building thermal load can make use of the thermal storage characteristics of the system or the building itself to shift in time,actively respond to the demand side of the power grid,and realize peak shaving and valley filling of the power grid;and using thermal storage devices to increase night power consumption can alleviate the difference between wind power output and load demand,promote wind power consumption,reduce thermal power output,and reduce carbon emissions.In order to improve the stability of power grid operation while keeping the air source heat pump clean for heating,this paper studies the energy consumption prediction of air source heat pump heating system under different operation modes and the demand side response of air source heat pump heating users.Firstly,the suitable energy consumption prediction models of air source heat pump heating system under continuous and intermittent operation modes are explored.Dest energy consumption simulation model,BP neural network model and LSTM neural network model are established respectively,and the three prediction models are verified by using the monitored energy consumption data.Th e results show that: for continuous heating system,the prediction result of BP neural network is better than that of LSTM neural network;for intermittent heating system,the prediction result of LSTM neural network is obviously better than that of BP neu ral network;under the two heating modes,the error of DeST energy consumption simulat ion is large,and a large number of building parameters and meteorological parameters need to be input,so the modeling process is more complex,which is more suitable fo r design Stage.Secondly,taking a typical rural building as an example,the direct h eating system model of air source heat pump is built on TRNSYS platform to analyze the impact of large-scale use of air source heat pump heating on the power grid.The res ults show that: after the large-scale use of air source heat pump heating,in differe nt stages of the heating season,it has an impact on the power grid,in which the mid-term heating has the greatest impact,the load rate of the power grid decreases by 2.07%,the peak valley difference of the power grid increases by 8.37%,and the maximum load of the power grid increases by 9.05%,which is not conducive to the stable operation of the power grid,but also reduces the utilization rate of power generation equ ipment.Finally,the demand side response potential of the two kinds of air source h eat pump heating systems to the power grid is quantified by selecting two kinds of heat storage modes,namely,water tank heat storage and building body heat storage,which are widely used at present.The results show that: the lower the outdoor temperatur e is,the higher the energy consumption is,and the better the effect is.Moreover,the peak load difference of building body heat storage is better than that of water tank heat storage.In the middle stage of heating,compared with ASHP direct heating sys tem,under the condition of constant maximum load of power grid,the peak valley difference is reduced by 56.95%,and the load rate is increased by 10.68%.When using heat storage heating,the energy consumption of the system increases,the energy consumption of the water tank heat storage heating system increases by 18.00%,and the heat storage heating of the building body increases by 23.35%.When the peak valley price is adopted,the system cost will be reduced,and the operation cost of water tank heat storage and building body heat storage will be reduced by 27.07% and27.51% respectively. |
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