Evaluation And Forecast Of Operation Efficiency Of Power Generation Industry Under The Background Of Electricity Marketization

It is of high practical significance for power generation companies to study the impact of electricity market reform on the power generation industry.The starting point of this article is at the micro-enterprise level,following the bottom-up research logic from the perspective of financial operating performance,based on the financial data of 62 listed companies in the power generation industry before and after the electricity market reform.Then using the DEA-BCC method for business efficiency static analysis and Malmquist index method for dynamic analysis of operating efficiency,which gets the operating efficiency and causes of changes of 62 listed companies in the power generation industry,empirically studied the impact of electricity market reform on the power generation industry.Then the article adopted the TIMES model to develop different power generation structure forecast comparing with the reference scenario.Finally,with the conclusions above,the specific suggestions and prospects are given.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)From a static perspective,the average technical efficiency(TE)of 62 listed electric power generation companies is0.909,indicating that about 9.1% of the non-profitable factor inputs are in the power generation industry.(2)To distinguish by sub-sectors,the overall scale benefit of the hydropower industry shows an increasing trend,and the overall scale benefit of the thermal power and new energy power generation industries shows a decreasing trend.(3)From a dynamic perspective,the average value of total factor productivity(TFP)of the power generation industry from 2013 to 2018 is 1.010,with an average annual increase of 1.0%.The main reason for the growth of total factor productivity(TFP)of power generation companies is technological progress(TECH).(4)From the perspective of comparison before and after power marketization reform,the operating efficiency of power generation companies after three years of implementation of power marketization reform is lower than that of the first three years of power marketization reform,mainly because the industry scale effect is not significant,and the technology progress has not reached expectations.(5)From the perspective of total energy and energy consumption,the development of electricity marketization will help to reduce the average electricity cost;but it has no significant effect on the total power generation.(6)From a short-term perspective,the reform of power marketization has had a negative impact on the operating efficiency of some power generation companies.(7)From a long-term perspective,power market reforms can help the power generation industry to reduce backward production capacity,expand effective supply,and reduce electricity costs for the real economy.