Vulnerability Analysis And Risk Assessment Of Automobile Supply Chain Under The Influence Of Epidemic Situation

In recent years,supply chain vulnerability is a hot research topic,involving automobile,agricultural products,e-commerce and other research fields.In 2020,the COVID-19 epidemic situation hit the automobile manufacturing industry,exposed the vulnerability factors and vulnerable nodes in the automotive supply chain,and seriously affected the normal operation of the automotive supply chain.Therefore,studying the vulnerability of the automobile supply chain under the influence of the epidemic situation is of great significance for further studying the risk of automobile supply chain and establishing the automobile supply chain to deal with the emergency strategy.Based on this,this paper focuses on the causes of vulnerability of automobile supply chain under the influence of epidemic situation,identifies the vulnerable nodes of a vehicle supply chain,and evaluates the risk of vulnerable nodes in a vehicle supply chain.Firstly,this paper studies the causes of vulnerability of automobile supply chain and the mechanism of vulnerability factors.Based on the knowledge of system dynamics,this paper builds the causality diagram of automobile supply chain vulnerability under the influence of epidemic situation,analyzes and determines four influencing factors of automobile supply chain vulnerability fluctuation caused by epidemic situation:personnel,transportation,market and cooperation,and subdivides them into eight vulnerable factors,and uses causality diagram and system flow diagram to analyze the mechanism of automobile supply chain vulnerability fluctuation.The results show that:the main impact is suppliers,manufacturers and other production links;the logistics transportation status mainly affects parts transportation,vehicle transportation and other links;the market purchasing power mainly affects the sales link of dealers;the cooperation factor mainly affects the enterprise demand forecast information.Secondly,the identification method of vulnerable nodes in automobile supply chain under the influence of epidemic situation is studied.Automobile supply chain is a multilevel complex network composed of suppliers,manufacturers,distributors and customers.Therefore,this paper uses the knowledge of complex network,selects the node failure conduction model,and uses MATLAB to solve the node vulnerability to determine the fragile and weak nodes in the supply chain in the example.Through analysis and calculation,the vulnerable nodes in the top three of the case supply chain are determined in order of 12,16 and 15,and the vulnerable nodes 12 are selected for risk assessment.Thirdly,the risk assessment method of automobile supply chain under the influence of epidemic situation is studied.The risk management of vulnerable nodes is very important for the stability of automobile supply chain.This paper uses AHP-TOPSIS model to manage the risk of vulnerable node 12,and uses AHP to determine the weight of each risk index,and then brings the weight into TOPSIS model to evaluate the risk of vulnerable nodes.Through analysis,it is proved that the top three factors of risk ranking in vulnerable node 12 are: transportation interruption,insufficient number of employees and increased transportation cost.Finally,the paper puts forward the strategy of automobile supply chain to deal with the emergency.Through the research of the impact of epidemic situation on the production and manufacturing,logistics and transportation in the automobile supply chain,the paper summarizes three strategies of automobile supply chain to deal with the emergency,namely,pay close attention to the fluctuation of vulnerability factors,quickly identify vulnerable nodes and links,and build a flexible supply chain in line with social development.