Cost And Benefit Analysis Of Hydrogen Energy Development Pathway In China

China has pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% to 65% by 2030 in Paris agreement.The international community agrees that the important means of reducing emissions are the transition of the energy system,and hydrogen can be an important carrier of the low carbon transformation of the energy system because of its unique advantage.China who has consumed the most coal in the world should actively deploy hydrogen applications to achieve carbon emissions targets.At present,all countries around the world are busy developing the application of hydrogen and has formed their characteristics.Given the technical levels and energy conditions of all countries,China should explore a unique path suitable for developing hydrogen.The contents and conclusions of this article include the following aspects:(1)Analyze the cost and benefit of applying hydrogen to transport sector.From the perspective of cost,hydrogen fuel cell bus and hydrogen fuel cell car is economical.From the environmental point of view,life cycle carbon dioxide emissions per 100 kilometers for same type of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle(FECV)life cycle is compared as follows: coal to hydrogen > natural gas to hydrogen > hydrogen electrolysis by solar energy > hydrogen electrolysis by wind energy.Environmental benefit of FECV bus >environmental benefit of FECV commercial vehicle > environmental benefit of FECV car.(2)Analyze the cost and benefit of applying hydrogen to department sector.The result show that the annual energy expenditure of the five climate area residential users using the domestic fuel cell heat and electricity association(CHP)system is higher than the current distribution of energy expenditure.What’s more,the environmental benefit of the system is significant in Beijing and Changchun.(3)The benefit cost ratio is used to determine which sector to develop hydrogen and the answer is the former one.Then build cost and benefit system dynamic model for hydrogen fuel cell vehicle development pathway in China and the result shows that the cumulative number of FECV is 46804 in 2025 and 858665 in 2030 under current policy scenario.Correspondingly,production cost of FECV goes from 300 thousand RMB in2016 to 240 thousand RMB,declining 20%;Benifit of FECV goes from 52979.1 RMB in 2016 to 42501 RMB,declining 19.78%;Annual cost of FECV goes from 26327.6RMB in 2016 to 24521.7 RMB,declining 32.5%;(4)In order to guide the development of FECV in China,different policy scenarios are designed to evaluate the cost and benefit analysis of different development pathway of FECV in China.From the perspective of development pathway,the increasement in the amount of government investment or the increasement in the proportion of purchase subsidy of FECV will make development pathway better,which means the cumulative amount of FECV in 2025 and 2030 is higher and the other policies or the implementation of the policy combination will make the cumulative amount of FECV lower than the basis scenario.The results of cost and beneft of different development pthways are as follows : changing on the amount of government investment or changing on the allocation of government investment have obvious impact on FECV cost and benefit but indirect policies like price of carbon diocide have few impact.