Research On Performance Evaluation And Simulation Of PPP Project Of Civil Air Defense Based On System Dynamics

In recent years,in order to build modern civil air defense projects with high quality and efficiency,make efficient use of underground space,and relieve the financial pressure of the governmentt,PPP mode is more widely used in civil air defense project construction in China.Since 2014,China’s policies on promoting the use of PPP mode in civil air defense projects and underground space development have been released in succession.Local governments have actively innovated the investment and operation mechanism,and carried out the pilot work of cooperation mode between the government and social capital.With the completion and implementation of more and more projects,more civil air defense projects will enter the construction period and operation period in the foreseeable future.However,the performance evaluation of civil air defense PPP project has not kept pace with the development of the project,and there are many deficiencies in theoretical research and practical application,such as the lack of awareness of performance evaluation,the lack of performance evaluation index system and evaluation methods,and the lack of appropriate performance evaluation and simulation tools.Based on this background,this paper focuses on the construction,operation,handover and other processes of civil air defense PPP project,with the system dynamics method to carry out the performance evaluation and simulation of civil air defense PPP project.Firstly,this paper selects and constructs the performance evaluation index system of civil air defense project through the relevant literature,laws and regulations of the performance evaluation of civil air defense project,and determines 30 performance evaluation indexes of civil air defense project PPP in peacetime and 9 in war state or disaster state.Combined with the questionnaire and research of the experts,the paper finally determines the performance evaluation index system of civil air defense PPP project,and explains the determination methods of the corresponding index.Secondly,based on the performance evaluation index system,the system dynamics method is used to model,and the peacetime and wartime causality model is established to form the causality diagram of performance evaluation system of civil air defense PPP project.By determining the flow rate system,the basic flow rate tree model and variable equation,the overall flow chart model of the system is determined.In this paper,the performance evaluation of civil air defense project in different states is realized by case study.When changing the key driving factors of performance change caused by parameter analysis,the sensitivity of the system is identified,and how the key driving factors that affect the performance of civil air defense PPP project play a role,as well as the evolution characteristics and trends of the whole system are analyzed.The simulation of performance evaluation of civil air defense PPP project is realized.Finally,the performance evaluation results of civil air defense PPP project are summarized,and the performance optimization scheme is proposed from the perspective of government and social capital.It is found that the government plays an important role in the PPP project of civil air defense project.When resources are limited,the government should give priority to reducing tax rate,increasing government subsidies and other measures to ensure the project benefits.