Research On The Valuation Of Listed Automobile Battery Companies

With the transformation and upgrading of the national economy and the increasingly prominent problem of energy shortage,the state and the government continue to increase policy support for new energy vehicles.In order to stabilize the market share,the automobile enterprises in the market also actively respond to the policy and increase investment in the production and research and development of new energy vehicles.At present,the biggest resistance of new energy vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles is the sales price and battery safety,The battery cost of new energy vehicles accounts for 30-45% of the total cost.Automobile battery is an industry with scale barrier and technical barrier,which needs a large amount of continuous capital inflow.However,there are many battery companies in the market.In order to obtain the state subsidy fund,some companies that didn’t do automobile battery changed their names,which confused investors’ eyes.Some automobile battery companies turned from profit to loss after eliminating the policy subsidy fund.The capital market needs a reasonable automobile battery valuation model to guide the capital flow to the long-term competitive automobile battery companies,promote the healthy competition of automobile battery listed companies,and reduce the resistance to the promotion of new energy vehicles,so as to effectively alleviate the contradiction between the rapid development of national economy and energy shortage.In the traditional company valuation methods,absolute valuation method mostly uses free cash flow,economic value added and other indicators as valuation basis.Although it can better reveal the internal value of listed companies,it has higher requirements for the stability of the operating state of valuation enterprises.In the aspect of enterprise development speed,such as the estimation of future operating income and comprehensive cost of capital,there are too many subjective factors,which are the same as The free cash flow method and economic value-added method also involve more accounting items adjustment,while the listed automobile battery companies are still in the stage of rapid growth,so the absolute valuation method is easy to produce poor estimation results.The relative valuation method usually takes the P / E ratio,P / B ratio,P / C ratio and other indicators as the valuation basis.Although the calculation is simple,it depends on selecting the appropriate comparable companies in the industry.The multi factor pricing model based on Econometrics can consider multiple index variables,and has a good performance in company valuation.The multi factor pricing model based on Econometrics can consider multiple index variables and reasonably calculate the company value.However,the multi factor pricing model is very strict on data and has many assumptions on data,which is also a big difficulty in the application of data in the actual modeling.Based on the immature capital market,the rapid development of automotive battery companies and the low efficiency of market resource allocation,this paper studies a large number of financial and non-financial indicators that may affect the valuation of listed automotive battery companies,based on the efficient market hypothesis theory,technological innovation and economic growth theory Based on the data of 58 automotive battery listed companies from 2017 to 2019,this paper constructs an artificial neural network algorithm of pure financial index group,shareholding distribution control group,R &D control group and full index group The valuation model predicts the stock price and calculates the deviation degree of eight auto battery listed companies randomly selected,and explores the influence of R &D index and shareholding distribution index on the valuation of auto battery companies through four different training sample sets.The results show that:(1)comprehensive consideration of financial indicators and non-financial indicators is more conducive to improve the accuracy of the model.On the whole,the average deviation degree of stock price forecast of BP neural network model in full index group,pure financial index group,R &D index control group and shareholding index control group is 4.29%,13.09%,11.10% and6.46% respectively.Increasing shareholding distribution index and R &D index can improve the stock price forecast The accuracy of the measurement is high.(2)Compared with the shareholding distribution index,the R &D index improves more obviously,which indicates that the R &D capability index is more important than the shareholding distribution index in the capital market value recognition of new energy vehicle battery listed companies.(3)Among the four groups,the smallest deviation is Yiwei lithium energy(full index group),Yiwei lithium energy(pure financial index group),Yiwei lithium energy(R &D index control group)and Shanshan stock(shareholding index control group).Among the four groups,the largest deviation is Desai battery(full index group),Dongfang Seiko(pure financial index group)and Dongfang Seiko(R &D index control group)According to the maximum and minimum deviation degree,the BP neural network valuation model constructed by the four groups of sample training set data has good consistency for the stock price prediction of new energy vehicle battery listed companies.According to the conclusion of this paper,firstly,it is suggested that individual investors should pay attention to not only the traditional financial indicators,but also the R &D capability indicators and shareholding distribution indicators when making investment decisions for listed companies of automotive batteries.Second,it is suggested that institutional investors should actively participate in corporate governance after investing in the listed companies of automobile batteries,promote the listed companies of automobile batteries to enhance their R &D capabilities,reasonably distribute their equity,and enhance the long-term competitiveness of the invested companies.Thirdly,it is suggested that listed companies should not only pay attention to the traditional financial indicators,but also pay attention to the nonfinancial indicators of the company according to the characteristics of the industry.The company should establish the industry valuation model,compare with the outstanding companies in the same industry,find out the differences and analyze the reasons,and then adjust in time according to the results to continuously improve the competitiveness of the company.Fourth,it is suggested that regulators should constantly improve regulatory laws and regulations,supervise listed companies to disclose financial and non-financial indicators in a timely manner,and effectively protect the interests of investors.