| After 40 years of reform and opening up,our country has developed into the world’s second largest economy and the largest developing country.The high-speed growth is largely driven by large amounts of high-carbon energy sources based on coal,accompanied by serious environmental pollution problems and energy demand will continue to increase.At the same time,our country is faced with the reality of "rich coal,poor oil,and low gas".The high dependence of petrochemical energy on foreign sources,the weak coupling and coordination of energy types make energy security an urgent issue,which also puts forward new requirements for our country’s energy industry.The contradiction between economic and social development and the unsustainability of traditional energy structure has intensified,which has given birth to new energy structure and supply mode.Under this background,the energy internet has emerged.Energy internet,as a new energy system and new business form,it focuses on renewable energy access and multi-energy coupling,can effectively promote energy supply-side reforms and improve industrial energy allocation efficiency.It is an inevitable choice to promote our country’s energy revolution.It also provides strong support for jointly responding to the new industrial revolution and sustainable economic and social development.It has important practical value and strategic significance.However,due to the large scale of industry and wide coverage,it is easy to cause systemic risks,cause huge economic losses,and even cause serious social impact.Energy internet has broad openness and significant system complexity,which also makes it impossible to meet the industrial development needs of energy internet based on simple single-dimensional indicator statistics and one-sided and partial risk analysis.Therefore,it has important research and practical significance to analyze and measure the energy internet integrated risk from the aspects of industrial environment and production operation.This paper adopts the method of system dynamics and establishes a integrated risk measurement model on the basis of systematic analysis of the energy internet integrated risk.Through systematic analysis of the economic and social environment(market and policy),operation management,and production operation risks involved in the energy internet,and on the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of various risks and their related causality,the causal loop diagram and flow diagram are constructed to establish a system dynamics model for the integrated risk measurement of the energy internet.Then,a case study was carried out by taking our country’s energy internet demonstration project as an example.The AHP-entropy weight method is used to obtain the weight of each risk factor and the initial value of each risk indicator of the energy internet,and then the integrated risk measurement of the entire case is carried out.The research results show that the constructed system dynamics model can effectively achieve the integrated risk analysis and evaluation of the energy internet.In addition,on the basis of simulating the evolution of various risks in different situations,the impact degree of key risk factors on the energy internet integrated risk is analyzed.The research results show that our country has been vigorously supporting the development of energy internet industry,and the economic and social environment risks it faces are relatively small.The development of energy internet industry is more restricted by related energy technologies and information technologies,which makes the operation management risks and production operation risks far greater than the economic and social environment risks in the whole simulation stage,and both of them show a changing trend of rising first and then falling in the whole simulation stage.At the same time,the simulation results of decision-making experiments also prove that reducing the key risk factors can reduce the energy internet integrated risk more efficiently,which provides a theoretical reference for dealing with and reducing the energy internet integrated risk.From the perspective of industrial economy and safe and sustainable development,based on system dynamics,studying how to systematically and effectively analyze and measure the energy internet integrated risk is an important task to comprehensively improve the development and operation of the energy internet industry.It’s also to be an important energy economic issues in the critical period of my country’s economic and social transformation and national strength enhancement.On the one hand,this research will help promote the development of comprehensive analysis and measurement methods related to the energy industry,and broaden the application fields of system dynamics related theories for energy economy.On the other hand,because it is more in line with the actual modeling of the energy internet,the constructed model and method can provide solutions to practical problems in the development of energy internet industry,and also provide reference for policy formulation and economic decision-making of industry enterprises,research institutions and government departments. |
