Research On Freight Demand Forecast And Operation Scheme Design Of Beijing-Guangzhou High-Speed Railway

With the adjustment of China’s economic structure and the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry,e-commerce develops with the trend,and the consumption level is improved.At the same time,people have higher requirements on the timeliness,such as,safety,transportation cost and punctuality of express goods.In recent years,although China’s high-speed rail network continues to improve,and operating mileage continues to increase,however,there are still many problems in high-speed rail freight transportation,therefore,how to give full play to the advantages of China’s high-speed railway network and traffic volume,integrate the freight industry and high-speed railway,and enhance the market competitiveness of China’s high-speed railway freight has become the key for railway operation departments to further promote freight reform and create benefits,this paper takes Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed railway as the research object,on the premise of determining the scope of attracting cities,the intensity of attracting cities and the cargo sharing rate of high-speed railway,uses the numerical calculation software to establish the model and solve the optimal operation scheme.Firstly,this paper analyzes the relevant theories and load cost of the four organization modes of high-speed rail freight train,high-speed rail confirmation car,passenger multiple unit plus trailer and piggyback transportation,and the advantages and disadvantages of the four organizational models mentioned are clarified;Secondly,the demand of high-speed rail freight between od is forecasted,It is mainly divided into two parts: one is to calculate the comprehensive score of cities within the radiation range and the intensity of freight attraction between the carrier cities through the principal component-entropy method and the hydrogen atom structure gravity model respectively,in addition,overall market demand of express delivery across 5 provinces and Beijing of Beijing Guangzhou high speed railway is predicted by using grey neural network forecasting method to ensure the scientificity and accuracy of the forecast results,the second is an improved logit share rate model is established to analyze the market share rate of future high-speed rail freight in the freight market,so as to predict the demand of high-speed rail freight between OD.Scheme design,and then to high profits and high customer satisfaction,lower the owner to pay fees as the goal,in consideration of the rail line transport capacity,train load,cargo flow constraints,and scope constraints under the premise of combining with the analysis of the beijing-guangzhou rail freight market demand forecast data and related influence factors of operation mode,establish model,The rationality and accuracy of the model are verified.