Research On The Analysis Method Of The Influence Of Large-scale Activities On The Stability Of Regional Road Traffic Network

With the development of urban economy,the exchange activities of domestic cities are more and more frequent,and it has gradually become a new normal for major cities to undertake a large number of large-scale activities every year.In order to speed up the development of exhibition industry,Shijiazhuang takes the 2022 Winter Olympic Games as an opportunity and Yutong international sports center as a carrier to seize the development opportunity of sports events and introduce international top-level events at the level of sports events and large-scale performing arts.With the increasing scale of large-scale activities,the impact of the activities on the original traffic network also increases.The short-term travel demand and temporary traffic control demand caused by large-scale activities entering and leaving the venue will break the original traffic balance.In order to ensure the smooth operation of the transportation network during the large-scale activities,it is necessary to analyze and evaluate the stability of the transportation network.From the perspective of facility supply,this paper analyzes the reasonable carrying limit of transportation resources during the large-scale activities under the current transportation service level.Therefore,the targeted research on the traffic impact during large-scale activities has practical significance for the city to hold large-scale activities.This paper systematically studies the theoretical system and application technology of traffic impact of large-scale activities from the aspects of traffic characteristics analysis of large-scale activities,relationship between large-scale activities and traffic network stability,early warning evaluation analysis and case analysis of road network carrying capacity around large-scale activities.Firstly,the paper studies the traffic characteristics of large-scale activities from the aspects of traffic demand and traffic flow.According to the change process of traffic flow aggregation and dissipation of large-scale activities,the paper uses traffic simulation technology to analyze the operation state of traffic network under different traffic demands.Secondly,when evaluating the relationship between large-scale activities and traffic network stability,the traffic carrying capacity is taken as the evaluation standard to reflect the impact of large-scale activities on the traffic network.Thirdly,the principles and methods of establishing the early warning model of road network carrying capacity around large-scale activities are determined.According to the influencing factors of traffic network stability,12 early warning evaluation indexes are selected to establish the early warning evaluation model of road network carrying capacity around large-scale activities based on PCA extension matter-element model.Finally,the paper analyzes the traffic carrying capacity of Yutong International Sports Center in Shijiazhuang City during the large-scale activities.The results show that the traffic flow indicators of the study area tend to deteriorate during the "China Super League" period,and the road network stability alarm level is upgraded from the original state of China police to heavy police,The traffic operation state of the study area has been improved,and the level of police information has been reduced,which provides guidance and reference for holding large-scale activities in the future.