Research On The Influence Of External Shocks On China’s Building Materials Price Fluctuation

In today’s world,with frequent international exchanges and ever-changing international situations,the impact of external shocks on an open economy is becoming more and more significant.With the acceleration of the process of global economic integration,the relationship between China’s economic development and the world economy is getting closer and closer.In this context,China’s building materials market will not only be affected by a variety of domestic factors,but also from the impact of various factors in the external environment,which greatly increases the uncertainty of China’s building materials price fluctuations.As an important part of construction project cost,the cost of building materials has a great impact on improving the profitability and competitiveness of construction enterprises.At present,there is no domestic scholar who specifically studied the issue of price fluctuations of building materials from the perspective of external shocks,this paper summarizes the relevant research theories and methods of previous scholars,with rebar steel,copper,aluminum,these three kinds of building materials as the main research object,from the cost-driven shocks,demand-driven shocks and currency shocks three aspects discusses the influence mechanism of external shock on the price fluctuation of building materials in China.First of all,this paper theoretically analyzes the transmission mechanism of these three channels affecting the price fluctuation of building materials in China,and puts forward a relatively clear theoretical framework.Secondly,this paper makes a descriptive analysis of the current situation of the main external shocks and the development of the building materials market in China,and preliminarily deduces the relationship between the external shocks and the domestic building materials prices by using the simple correlation coefficient.In order to further explore the impact of external shocks on the price fluctuations of building materials in China,this paper adopts the monthly time series data from January 2007 to June2019 to construct three SVAR models respectively,and uses impulse response function,variance decomposition and other data validation methods to conduct empirical tests.The empirical results show that external shocks affect the prices of the three main building materials in China,but the degree of impact is different.Among them,the cost-driven shocks represented by the relevant international bulk commodity prices has the most significant effect on the price of building materials.The demand-driven shocks represented by the export quantity of products also has a certain influence on the price of building materials,but the influence degree is different due to the different export conditions of the three building materials.The currency shocks on China’s building materials price is relatively small.Among the three building materials,rebar steel is the most affected by external impact,followed by aluminum and copper.Finally,based on the reality of China’s building materials market facing all kinds of external shocks,the relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.