Reliability Evaluation And Optimal Capacity Allocation Of Coupled Heat And Electricity Systems Containing CSP

With the rapid development of global industrial economy,the exhaustion of fossil energy and the deterioration of environment and climate are becoming increasingly serious,which promote the use and development of renewable energy.The concentrated solar power(CSP)plants have gradually entered the public view.There are many internal components in CSP plants,and the conversion and coupling of different energy forms are bound to bring new challenges to the reliable operation of power system.In addition,the reasonable allocation of the key parameters of CSP plants also has a positive effect on the reliable and economical operation of systems.Based on the above background,supported by National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFB0902200)and National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(51725701),this paper focuses on the reliability modeling,reliability evaluation and optimal allocation of CSP plants.The main research contents are as follows:A multi-state reliability Markov model of CSP plants considering partial function failure is proposed.Firstly,the function and failure effect of each component of CSP plants are analyzed.The core components that affect the output of CSP plants are selected.According to the component function,the CSP plant is divided into heat collection subsystem,heat exchange subsystem and power generation subsystem.Then,an 8-state Markov reliability model is established.Finally,according to the fact that the CSP plants can be operated in partial function failure states as thermal energy storage or generation.The 8-state model is simplified to the 4-state model by combining the partial function failure states with the same effect.The proposed model is tested on the modified RBTS/IEEE RTS systems for case study to verify the effectiveness and correctness.The results show that the model proposed can evaluate the reliability of CSP plants more precisely and avoid underestimating its reliability level.Based on the multi-state reliability model of CSP plants established above,a reliability evaluation method for the coupled heat and electricity(CHE)systems containing CSP considering thermal dynamic characteristics is proposed.Firstly,the transmission delay and temperature loss of heating network,and the thermal inertia of seasonal thermal load are modeled.The framework of CHE systems includings conventional units,CSP plants,combined heat and power(CHP)units and electric heater(EH)is established.Then,taking the minimum sum of system production cost and load loss cost as the objective function and considering the influence of thermal dynamic characteristics,the optimal load curtailment model of CHE systems is established.Finally,the load curtailment of the system under different operation states is analyzed and the reliability of the CHE systems is evaluated by sequential Monte Carlo method.The case study is given for a CHE system with serious faults under a typical day in winter.The results show that the reliability indices are more optimistic and more consistent with the actual reliability level by considering the thermal dynamic characteristics of heating network and thermal load.Based on the load loss cost obtained by reliability evaluation model established above,the optimal allocation model of solar field area and thermal energy storage(TES)capacity of CSP plants considering the reliability is established.Firstly,according to the reliability evaluation model established,the investment cost of solar field and TES system of CSP plants and the load loss cost are added to the objective function to establish the optimal allocation model of the solar field area and TES capacity of CSP plants.Then,the hierarchical clustering method is used to cluster the solar radiation data.Four typical weeks are selected to represent the annual radiation level to match the simulation period.Finally,particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the model to obtain the optimal solar multiple and thermal energy storage hours of system,and the sensitivity of parameters is analyzed.The model is used to plan the CSP plants in the CHE systems above.The results show that the established model can effectively balance the investment cost and the load loss cost,significantly reduce the total cost of system,and help the system to operate economically and reliably.