| In view of the problem of power supply capacity weakening due to the uncertainty and destructive characteristics of extreme disaster earthquake.This paper takes disaster scenario set,coupling connection of coordination subsystem of electrical-electrical coupling system and evaluation method as perspectives.Combining the advantages of mature electricity-gas technology,gas-pneumatic technology and natural gas generator in lifting installed capacity,a toughness evaluation framework for comprehensive evaluation of electricity-gas integrated energy system is proposed.The purpose of this study is to determine the power gas integrated energy system to overcome the destructive impact of extreme disasters on the distribution network system and to complete the accurate resilience assessment of the system.The main work of this paper is as follows.Firstly,a basic framework of earthquake disaster simulation is studied.The paper analyzes the disaster data by Monte Carlo simulation,extracts the seismic disaster characteristic information according to the principal component analysis and formula method,uses the vulnerability curve to determine the failure rate of each component;expounds the three seismic scene sets by clustering method and information entropy weight method.Combining three seismic scene sets and Markov state method,two states and three states are established The model of four state transfer provides a foundation for further study on the resilience evaluation of the integrated energy system of electricity and gas.Secondly,in view of the problem of the system resilience change caused by large area power failure of the electric gas coupling system after disaster,the static resilience evaluation framework of the electric gas integrated energy system is established: fist of all,the resilience index system of the electric gas integrated energy system in different time stages is determined,namely,the three levels of resilience are determined by the four secondary resilience indexes,namely,fast speed,robustness,coupling and recovery degree Sex index;according to the three-level index formula,the indexes under different state models are quantified respectively.In order to avoid the weight deviation caused by single subjective weight and objective weight on static comprehensive evaluation,the static evaluation of resilience is completed by using the comprehensive evaluation based on game theory,and the three-level resilience index is taken as the game object to realize the unification of subjective and objective weight.The results of static evaluation of primary and secondary resilience of the electric gas integrated energy system under different seismic scenarios are calculated by examples.The results show that the electric gas integrated energy system has a large resilience capability,and provides the appropriate advice to improve the resilience of the system by the evaluation results.Finally,in order to ensure the more accurate evaluation of each resilience index,a dynamic comprehensive evaluation method based on gain level excitation is established.The method takes the different resilience index gain of different cutting points as the basic point.By introducing the weighted sum method of the incentive factors,the dynamic comprehensive evaluation results of the electric gas integrated energy system under different seismic scenarios are carried out.The accuracy and effectiveness of the method are verified by simulation. |
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