Reliability Evaluation Of Integrated Energy System Considering Delay Characteristics Of Heating Network Based On Sequential Simulation

In order to save energy,reduce emissions and relieve energy pressure,many countries are developing integrated energy systems.The integrated energy system can not only break down the system,technology and market barriers of the traditional energy supply system,and enhance the overall interaction of source,network and load,but also improve the reliability of the system’s energy supply by the substitutability and complementarity between energy flows.Considering the difference of the impact of different energy supply interruption on users,the variation characteristics of the running state of each energy system and the multi-energy complementation under the fault,the establishment of reliability index system and the study of reliability evaluation methods have become an urgent problem to be solved in the planning and operation of the integrated energy system.Therefore,considering the characteristics of multi-energy flow such as network transmission delay,thermal inertia of load and the difference of reliability demand in load reduction,this paper combined the calculation of multi-energy flow with sequential monte carlo,and proposed the sequential simulation reliability evaluation method of integrated energy system.The main work is summarized as follows:The equipment composition,system structure and classification of integrated energy system are studied,and the operation models of each equipment component and system are established.This paper analyzes the operation mode of the integrated energy system and the pipe network structure adopted by the central heating system,establishes the hydraulic and thermodynamic models of the heat network and integrated power flow calculation model,so as to provide data support for the system state analysis in the reliability evaluation.Based on the reliability model of components in the integrated energy system,the dynamic model of heating subsystem load and the reliability criterion of heating network supply under the condition of component failure were established,and the parameters of heating recovery time were modified by considering the transmission delay characteristic of heating network.Considering the economy of system operation and the relative importance of loads,a comprehensive energy load reduction optimization model is established.Combined with multi-energy flow simulation and optimal load reduction,a sequential simulation reliability assessment method for integrated energy systems is proposed.Finally,a numerical example is built for simulation to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the reliability evaluation method of integrated energy system proposed in this paper considering the characteristics of multi-energy flow.The variation of energy supply reliability index after energy flow mutual economy and sequential simulation reliability evaluation method and the influence of integrated energy load reduction strategy,heating standard of thermal network and thermal inertia on system energy supply reliability are analyzed,so as to provide technical support for the operation and design of the actual integrated energy system.