Study On Market Mechanism Design Of Integrated Energy System Under Price Fluctuation Risk

With continuous development of society,human demand for energy is also growing rapidly,and traditional energy systems are gradually unable to meet human needs.The integrated energy systems realizes multi-energy conversion 、complementary、 and flexible utilization,which is an important direction for the development of the electric industry.Among the many problems in the integrated energy systems,the risk of electricity price fluctuations has always been a key issue that many scholars pay attention to.The main reasons for electricity price fluctuations are the imbalance of system supply and demand caused by human speculation human factors and transmission congestion.Based on the credit rating mechanism and distributed algorithm,this paper focuses on the study of integrated energy market mechanism design theory and demand-side management strategies,aiming to reduce price fluctuations.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:First,given the issue of electricity price fluctuations caused by human factors,this chapter puts forward the supervision mechanism of energy market breach of contract and a price game strategy of incomplete information market.For the problem that some energy hubs in the integrated energy market have breached contracts in order to pursue higher profits.We establish a credit rating model based on Fisher discriminant analysis to evaluate the credit status of the energy hubs,and three levels of punishment to punish breaches in transactions.At the same time,we set up a Bayesian game model with incomplete information to analyze the price competition strategies among energy hubs under the condition of private information.The simulation results verify the effect of the credit rating method on the penalty of defaulted energy hubs and the improvement of the system economy by the Bayesian game.Secondly,when the integrated energy system is blocked,the system needs to reschedule the units.However,the energy coupling relationship of the integrated energy system is complex,and the centralized scheduling is very difficult.Therefore,this paper establishes a distributed optimal scheduling model that can independently optimize the operating costs of each subsystem.On this basis,considering the role of user price-based demand-side management for alleviating transmission congestion,the user’s electricity and gas energy prices are set according to the Shapley value of the cooperative game to implicitly share the operating cost of the system,and users can make demand side according to the price.management.The simulation results verify the convergence of the distributed algorithm.Compared with the node price method,this method can reasonably share the congestion cost,reduce the sales surplus caused by the transmission congestion,and decrease the system price fluctuation.