Research On Regional Photovoltaic Power Forecast And Hydro-photovoltaic Complementary Short-term Scheduling Method

The volatility and uncontrollability of new energy power generation output with high permeability lead to the consumption of new energy,and the problems of spatio-temporal coordinated dispatching of various types of power sources become increasingly prominent.The forecasting of new energy power and reasonable complementary dispatching can effectively alleviate such problems.However,how to improve the short-term prediction accuracy of new energy power,make use of hydropower stations and cascade power stations with different regulatory capacities to conduct short-term complementary dispatching with new energy,so as to optimize the power generation plan and enhance the operational flexibility of the system,is a problem that needs to be solved in the implementation of multi-energy short-term complementary dispatching.In this paper,the current conditions are for cascade hydropower stations in the lancang river basin in yunnan province,Dali,and photovoltaic power station as the research object,and around the area above the complementary short-term scheduling of this problem,short-term prediction for regional photovoltaic power,complementary analysis of different types of hydropower station and regional photovoltaic(pv)and cascade hydropower stations and photovoltaic complementary short-term scheduling of three aspects are studied,the main research content is as follows:(1)Regional photovoltaic power forecast based on typical representative power stations and improved SVM.Large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power supply puts forward higher requirements for regional photovoltaic forecasting,but the practicability of traditional forecasting methods is poor.Therefore,in order to make up for these shortcomings,this paper takes Dali Chuxiong Erzhou Photovoltaic Power Station as the research object,uses K-means method to combine various information to calculate and obtain several convergence areas,and uses three mathematical correlation coefficients to combine output data of photovoltaic power station and convergence area to select typical representative stations,and then uses four evaluation indexes to verify the correctness of typical representative station selection.Finally,a regional power forecasting model is formed by typical representative hydropower stations and PV convergence areas combined with improved SVM,and the effectiveness of this method is verified by an example.(2)Seasonal complementary dispatching analysis of hydropower station and regional photovoltaic industry.In the face of a large number of clean energy issues,such as difficulties in the coordination and dispatching of multiple energy sources due to the uncertainty of the power generation law,the traditional method is to use hydropower stations with strong regulation capabilities to form a hydro-light complementary model,but it has not fully explored and analyzed different regulation types of hydropower stations.The complementarity of different photovoltaic concentrating areas is strong and weak,thereby further enhancing the flexibility of hydropower output.Therefore,according to the division results of hydropower stations and photovoltaic convergence areas in the local basin,this paper constructs and calculates the corresponding water-light complementary dispatching model and finally uses 3 complementary indicators to analyze the typical days of each month and the dry seasons of various water-light combinations.Complementary data,and finally,according to the calculation results,it is found that the complementarity of water-light combinations in different periods is significantly different,and the water-light combination with the strongest complementarity in each period is obtained.(3)Cascade hydropower and photovoltaic short-term complementary dispatching method based on equivalent power plant.Based on the above research results,the hydropower station with strong complementarity and the photovoltaic convergence area are combined to form an equivalent power plant,and the regulation performance of the hydropower station is used to try to suppress the fluctuation of photovoltaic output.On this basis,the joint complementary dispatching model of equivalent power plant and other cascade hydropower stations in the basin with peak regulation as the objective is established.Compared with the conventional water-optical complementary dispatching method,the proposed method has better complementary effect.Furthermore,the complementarity of different equivalent power plant combinations is further verified and analyzed.The results show that the complementarity of different equivalent power plant combinations is significantly different,which can be used to guide the complementary operation of cascade hydropower stations and photovoltaic plants in different periods of flood and drought.