Research On Optimization Of China’s Renewable Portfolio Standard

Promoting the consumption of renewable electricity is an important way to optimize power structure,control greenhouse gas emissions and fulfill Intended Nationally Determined Contributions(INDCs).At present,China’s INDCs is to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,and to drop the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP more than 65% by 2030,and striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,and the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption reaching about 25%.Renewable electricity consumption guarantee mechanism(REC guarantee mechanism)is currently the most restrictive renewable energy policy in China.Whether its design is rational or not and whether it is implemented smoothly is related to the accomplishment of the dual goals of the INDCs carbon intensity and non-fossil energy consumption proportion.This article optimizes China’s renewable energy quota policy from two aspects.On the one hand is the system design,this article compares and studies the main content of the system design between China and several representative countries with renewable portfolio standard(RPS),including targets,responsible entities,types of qualified power generation energy,operation mechanisms,reward and punishment measures,and supporting policies,etc.,draw on the successful implementation of foreign RPS for more than 20 years,think about the future optimization direction of my country’s RPS system.This paper proposes to set mid-to-long-term consumption targets,liberalize electricity sales to reduce cost barriers,set differentiated quota indicators,explore the technical grade certificate mechanism,formulate reasonable punishment measures and exemption mechanisms,and establish regional trading systems.On the other hand is the weight design,this article focuses on the optimal design of the core design of China’s REC guarantee mechanism-the obligatory proportion of renewable electricity for each province.To this end,we couple the “top-down” and“zero sum gains-data envelopment analysis(ZSG-DEA)” models to form a comprehensive model for the appropriate allocation of renewable electricity consumption(REC).First,the “top-down” model was used to calculate the 2030’s overall REC based on the non-fossil energy proportion target.Second,we applied the multi-principle “ZSG-DEA” model to allocate the overall REC effectively among provinces.Based on our analysis,the 2030’s total REC which can be reached by Chinese government’s policy of REC guarantee mechanism still needs to increase by17.27% to 35.45% compared with the overall REC calculated by our comprehensive model.In order to achieve the 2030’s non-fossil energy target,23 provinces need to increase the consumption of renewable electricity compared to their initial shares required by the REC mechanism.Among them,the northwestern region,which is expected to have a large increase in installation in 2030,has a larger increase in the obligatory proportion,which can realize the local consumption of renewable energy resources and reduce losses.The the obligatory proportion of REC in the central and developed regions have also increased;7 provinces need to reduce the obligatory proportion of REC,most of which are located in the southwest.Finally,when determining the obligatory proportion of each province from 2021 to 2030,the policy adopts the method of equal annual growth.This article optimizes it to determine the obligatory proportion of each province in each year according to the S-shaped growth curve.Our empirical results provide a scientific basis for the Chinese government to achieve its non-fossil energy targets through the REC guarantee mechanism.We also provide policy makers with ideas for optimizing the quality of quota policies,determining the total amount of REC and adjusting the province’s consumption responsibility.