Tianjin Port Container Throughput Forecasting Based On Deep Learning

In recent years,under the multiple backgrounds of economic globalization,regional integration,and containerization of transportation,port development is increasingly rooted in the macro-level economic and social institutional environment,and the regional development environment of the port has also expanded from the traditional small-scale port-city development environment.To a closer development environment on a regional scale.Changes in the external environment such as the slowdown in Tianjin’s economic growth and the acceleration of the construction of the Bohai Rim port group have directly led to the decline in the development of Tianjin Port’s port logistics.Based on understanding the influencing factors of port logistics and establishing a port throughput analysis model,this paper uses deep learning algorithms such as LSTM,GRU and Bi-LSTM for modeling,and obtains a deep learning model suitable for container prediction in Tianjin Port.Analyze the trend of future container throughput changes in Tianjin Port,and propose a coordinated strategy for port construction and hinterland to improve the development level of port logistics.Specific realization of the following research:First,in view of the mutual influence of Tianjin Port’s port construction and the coordinated development of the port hinterland on port logistics,through port throughput trend analysis and hinterland economic characteristics analysis,the influencing factors of Tianjin Port’s container throughput are obtained,and the volatility and cycle of the time series Based on characteristics,the container throughput prediction model is designed using deep learning algorithms.Through empirical comparison,the robustness of the prediction model constructed by the Bi-LSTM algorithm in the forecast of Tianjin Port’s container throughput is obtained,and the development trend of Tianjin Port’s container throughput can be obtained by using port construction and hinterland economic data to predict.Secondly,combined with the historical development trend and policy planning orientation of port construction and hinterland economic values,the forecast indicators of Tianjin Port are divided into scenarios for future trends,and the Tianjin Port container throughput from 2019 to 2022 is obtained through the Tianjin Port container throughput optimal forecast model.Through the analysis of the trend change of the forecast results under different influencing factors,we will deeply analyze the impact of Tianjin Port construction and hinterland economy on port logistics,and explore the strategic focus of improving the logistics level of Tianjin Port.Finally,based on the Tianjin Port’s container throughput forecast results obtained under different scenarios of port construction and hinterland economic factors,the trend of the development level of Tianjin Port’s port logistics is analyzed,and the key points of Tianjin Port’s logistics construction are explored and targeted at the economic situation of the port’s hinterland.In accordance with the port construction conditions,a strategy for the coordinated development of the hinterland of Tianjin Port and the construction of a smart port is proposed.